The Chicago Bears are the new “Kings of the (NFC) North,” going from last place in the division in 2017 to first place in 2018, following their win last week over Green Bay. A letdown could be expected in Week 16 as they travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the 4-10 San Francisco 49ers, Sportsbook as just 3.5-point favorites. They still have work to do, as they are just one game behind Los Angeles for second in the NFC and gaining a first-round bye in the playoffs, so expect the Bears to come out firing on all cylinders.
- The OVER has hit in five of Chicago’s last seven games at San Francisco.
- San Francisco is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 home games.
- San Francisco is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine home games against Chicago.
THIS SUNDAY I’M BETTING CHICAGO -3.5
As mentioned above, Chicago still has a shot at a first-round bye in the playoffs … so the Bears still have some motivation to play hard in the remaining two weeks of the regular season.
After a two-game absence due to injury, and a dismal performance in his return in Week 14 against the Rams, Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looked much better last week, completing 20 of 28 passes for 235 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 24-17 win over the Green Bay Packers.
Trubisky completed a pass to eight different receivers and was sacked just once, a recurring theme for Chicago, which is among the top 10 in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed. That is also bad news for a San Francisco team that is in the bottom half of the league in defensive sacks; not being able to generate consistent pressure will allow Trubisky to use all of his weapons and generate some offensive momentum.
The good thing for Trubisky is he doesn’t need to put up a ton of points, because he knows he has one of the league’s most imposing defenses supporting him. They get after the quarterback, they stuff the run and they force turnovers — it’s going to be a long day for Niners QB Nick Mullens. The 3.5-point spread suggests oddsmakers think Chicago will come out flat following its division-clinching win, but I think the prospect of a first-round bye within reach keeps the team just as hungry. Give me the Bears to cover.
THE MONSTERS OF THE MIDWAY ARE TERRIFYING
Let’s look at the numbers: third-fewest yards allowed, third-fewest points against, second-fewest rushing yards allowed, fewest first downs allowed, most takeaways in the NFL, fourth-most sacks and the highest interception percentage in the league.
No matter how you frame it, the Chicago Bears defense is the stuff that nightmares are made of for opposing quarterbacks. They hit you, they constantly apply pressure, they don’t allow you to use the running game to contribute … and if you make a mistake, they punish you for it. They’ve also ramped up the level of their play, allowing more than 30 points just once in their last eight games — an incredible feat in this high-scoring NFL season.
Their last two games saw them give up just six points to the high-octane Rams and hold Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 17 points. The Monsters of the Midway are back, and they’ve got their eyes set on Niners rookie backup quarterback Nick Mullens.
If the Bears continue more of the same in terms of defensive performance, bettors may want to look at the UNDER on the total of 43 points.
NINERS HANGING TOUGH AT HOME
For as long and arduous a season as this has been for San Francisco, we have to give the 49ers credit for at least playing hard — and well — in front of their home crowd.
All four of the Niners’ wins this season have come at Levi’s Stadium, and their last two weeks have seen them beat two quality teams that are fighting for playoff spots: the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks.
San Francisco benefited from some big plays in those two games, mainly an 85-yard George Kittle catch-and-run against Denver and then a 97-yard kickoff return touchdown against Seattle, which combined with the Niners having just one turnover in each game has led to the offense keeping them in the game.
The pass defense has also risen up, allowing just one 300-yard passer in their seven home contests. They keep games tight, and recently have been doing enough on offense to make it interesting. Their final home game will be their biggest test, however, as the Bears defense is more dangerous than any other unit they’ve faced this season.
