James Conner

Tie One On! Browns Travel to Pittsburgh

Seven weeks into the season, the Cleveland Browns have played four overtime games. They’re 1-2-1 straight up in those contests. However, the Browns received 3.5 points from the Buccaneers in Week 7 and while Chandler Catanzaro’s 59-yard field goal in overtime may have dropped Cleveland to 2-4-1 overall, its ATS record improved to 5-2.

Before a Week 7 bye, Pittsburgh shocked Cincinnati with a last-minute score to win, cover and improve to 3-2-1 straight up and 3-3 against the spread with three covers in its last four games. As the Steelers look to make it four covers in five games, Cleveland is in search of its first straight-up road win since October 2015. The Steelers opened as 7-point home favorites before the spread rose Monday to -7.5 with the Browns moneyline +260 and the point total at 50.5.

SHARK BITES
  • The Browns are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs the Steelers.
  • The Steelers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games after a bye.
  • The Browns are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games on the road (avg. losing margin: 11.54).

Browns vs Steelers Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 7

Browns – With four more forced turnovers in Week 7, the Browns lead the NFL with 20 takeaways and a turnover differential at plus-10. Do all these turnovers mean anything if Cleveland’s offense can’t turn them into points? Straight up, probably not, but against the spread is a different question.

Following the trade of Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville, Hue Jackson said the move would open up more opportunities for rookie Nick Chubb. In his first “start,” Chubb finished with 18 carries for 80 yards against Tampa Bay. Tight end David Njoku has caught 11 of 18 targets with two touchdowns the past two games. However, the team’s WR-2, Antonio Callaway, has averaged just 24 receiving yards without a touchdown the past five games. Meanwhile, in New England, Tom Brady says Josh Gordon continues to earn his trust.

Steelers – Le’Veon Bell was a no-show during the Steelers’ Week 7 bye week and didn’t show up to the team’s facility Monday. So, Pittsburgh will continue to roll with James Conner. He averaged 20 carries and 110 rushing yards with four touchdowns in the two games leading up to the bye. Cleveland ranks 29th against the rush at 134.7 yards allowed per game and 31st in rushing touchdowns allowed (10 in seven games). Watch for Pittsburgh to exploit this weakness as a way to control the clock.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS – BROWNS TURNOVER WANE

The Browns are basically averaging three forced turnovers per game and yet they are 2-4-1. Over the past three years, teams that have forced three or more turnovers in a game are 229-46 or 83.3 percent SU and 221-48-6 or 82.2 percent ATS. For as grim and disappointing as the Browns’ end result can be, their defense is going to be the thing that lifts them out of the quagmire culture.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS – BYE, BYE, SIGH

The Steelers have failed to cover in each of their last four meetings with the Browns and their recent ATS trends coming out of the bye don’t look to snap that skid. Pittsburgh is 0-4 in its last four and 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games coming out of the bye.

PITTSBURGH, PA FORECAST

Cloudy with temperatures in the high 40s and a 50 percent chance of showers. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

Although he didn’t attempt a field goal at Tampa Bay, Browns kicker Greg Joseph hasn’t missed a kick in back-to-back games. After missing two field goals and extra points to start the season, Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell has converted five of six field goals and 10 of 12 extra points.

MY PICK

With the way the defense has played and the turnovers it’s forced, Cleveland will be able to hang around with any team. It’s up to an all-rookie backfield of Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to spark the offense because with all due respect to Jarvis Landry, he’s a possession receiver, not a primary scorer. Before the bye, Ben Roethlisberger was clicking with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown, and James Conner, who ran over the Browns for 111 yards with two scores in Week 1, isn’t slowing down. Pittsburgh wins this game, but the Browns defense keeps it close late.

The Browns are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs the Steelers. The Steelers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games after a bye.home The Browns are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games on the road (avg. losing margin: 11.54).away
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