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Betting Preview: Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

Sam Darnold is out with mono. Trevor Siemian is in and oddsmakers believe that will cost the Jets 3.5 points.

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets (Matchup Report)

Date/Time: September 16, 8:15 p.m. ET

TV Coverage: ESPN National Game

Opening Odds: Browns -3 | O/U 45.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Browns opened as 3-point road favorites, but after getting destroyed by Tennessee in their home opener, the line slipped to Cleveland -2.5. After some concerns about Le’Veon Bell and C.J. Mosley’s health started to bubble, the Browns moved back to -3. Just when the Jets didn’t think it could get worse, it did. Sam Darnold will miss Monday night’s game and Bell missed Thursday’s practice and will get an MRI on his shoulder. The Browns are now 6.5-point road favorites. The Jets moneyline is +255 and the point total is now 44 with Siemian behind center for the Jets.

This marks only the second time since 2015 that Cleveland has been a road favorite. Cleveland lost 31-28 at Indianapolis back in 2017 as a 1-point fave.

The Browns finished the 2018 regular season 10-6 against the spread, but a 43-13 opening-week loss to the Titans as a 5.5-point favorite means Cleveland starts this campaign 0-1. On the flip side, the Jets finished with the second-worst ATS record last season, 5-10-1, and carried that on into 2019 as New York (-3) blew a 16-0 lead to Buffalo to lose 17-16.

Cleveland News & Notes

The Browns’ 18 penalties for 182 yards were the most by the team since 1951. This is correctable.

The Browns’ issues on the offensive line, which led to Baker Mayfield getting sacked five times and likely caused his bruised hand, are what’s more concerning for owners of Cleveland futures bets. With the pocket collapsing around him, Mayfield also threw three interceptions.

Defensively, if you toss out the two deep balls the secondary got burned on, Cleveland played quite well. The Browns held Tennessee to 2-for-10 on third down and the pass rush sacked Marcus Mariota four times.

New York News & Notes

If kicker Kaare Vedvik doesn’t miss both his lone field goal and extra-point attempts, not only do the Jets likely win SU, but they at least earn a -3 ATS push. In related news, New York is reportedly working out new kickers this week.

“We were inept on offense,” Jets head coach Adam Gase told reporters after the loss Sunday night.

The Bills’ elite defense picked up right where it left off and the pass rush got nine hits on Sam Darnold and sacked him four times. So, the Jets’ 28th-ranked offensive line as determined by Pro Football Focus lived up to its preseason reputation. Siemian isn’t going to make an “inept” offense better overnight.

Despite O-line concerns, Le’Veon Bell impressed in his first regular-season game in two years. He racked up 92 yards on 23 touches with a touchdown. Even if he plays, Bell’s shoulder injury makes him at best 90 percent heading into Week 2.

Although they only finished with one sack, the New York pass rush – inspired by former Browns interim head coach Gregg Williams – did finish with nine hits on Josh Allen and the defense forced four turnovers. With the way Cleveland’s O-line looked against the Titans, this could be where the Jets find a way to tip the scales in their favor.

Jets rookie defensive lineman Quinnen Williams was seen wearing a walking boot after the game. His status is “questionable” ahead of Monday night’s contest. C.J. Mosley left in the third quarter with a groin injury and is also questionable.

Betting Pick: Browns -6.5

To many who have watched him play in Denver, it may come as a surprise to see Siemian as the Jets QB2. However, his backup role spoke volumes when you consider the Jets expected 16 starts out of a young Sam Darnold. The Browns aren’t perfect, but the Jets are a hot mess.

Shark Bites
  • The Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the Browns’ last 11 games at night.
  • The Jets are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games after a loss.