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Colts Have Covered in 9 Straight Games vs Broncos

Let me preface this article by saying I am a Colts fan. I am 100% realistic about my expectations for them this season and their defense has a chance to be historically and record-breakingly awful. The point here being, Indianapolis has a great shot to pull out a win in Denver this weekend as big underdogs. Why do I think that? Numbers, baby, numbers.

Indy is a perfect 9-0 on the spread in their last nine games against the Broncos and is 8-1 straight up in those games. Now, that one loss did come during the Andrew Luck regime but the Colts still covered as big underdogs. This line opened with Denver favored by four points but the gap has steadily grown with the spread sitting at six at the time this was written.

So, what has this spread record meant for the betting public? $100 bettors who bet the Colts in all nine of their last nine matchups with the Broncos have profited a net of $818.18. Words are cheap but money talks and I’m taking this trend to the bank this Sunday.

If the spread stays put, it could spell success for the Colts as they’re a perfect 5-0 against the spread AND straight up in their last five games when pegged as underdogs of six points or less. Conversely, the Broncos are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games when favored by six points or fewer – is this too good to be true?

The Colts’ average margin of victory over the Broncos during their ATS streak is 11.5 and they have been an excellent bet against the spread after losing as they are 21-9 ATS after their last 30 losses.

I touched on the elephant in the room earlier but let’s dig into the mess that is the Colts’ D. Matt Stafford and the Detroit Lions carved up Indy’s makeshift secondary last week and ran all over their front seven. So, why do I bring this up when I’m clearly touting Indy as underdogs this week? Simple. The Colts have never ever had good defense and it’s been especially bad since Andrew Luck has taken over as Indy’s signal-caller. Luck has this intangible trait of getting things done despite having to overcome huge deficits almost every game and already has 10 career come-from-behind wins in the fourth quarter – it would have been 11 if not for Matt Prater.

Andrew Luck is the absolute X factor in this game and if he gets hot, there is nothing rookie quarterback Trevor Siemian will be able to do about it. Alex Smith suffered a similar fate when Luck brought his team back from a 28-point deficit in the second half of their wild-card game in 2014 – a game in which the Colts gave up a staggering 513 yards of total offense.

The Colts’ Achilles heel in this one will be their defense, which was down to five healthy secondary players on Sunday. I do, however, expect the Broncos to go with a run-heavy offense a week after Siemian threw two picks on just 26 pass attempts. Running the ball tends to take a lot more time off the clock – if it doesn’t get taken to the house every carry – and normally results in scores being much lower than when two gunslingers like Drew Brees and Eli Manning meet up.

I see this game staying within three or four points as the average score of the last four games between these teams is 28.5 to 25.3 in favor of Andrew Luck and the cardiac Colts.

My prediction: Broncos win 24-21 and the Colts cover.

Keep an eye on the lines and check out the matchup for the Colts vs Broncos and all the other games on the slate to make the most of your NFL bets this weekend.