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Cowboys vs Dolphins Thanksgiving Pick

Even Miami Dolphin fans are wondering how their team has won three straight and even the stoutest Dolphin bettors might be keeping their wallet closed on Thanksgiving as they visit the Dallas Cowboys.

With Dallas favored by more than a TD, the total bet is attracting lots of interest as Miami is 9-1 on the season favoring the UNDER (all 5 road games). The OVER has been trending in Dallas home games (11-3 past 14).

Dallas is 9-2 SU in their past 11 games as a favorite, but has covered only three spreads in those games and the Odds Shark scores engine is predicting that Miami will cover the spread here (25-22 projected score for Dallas).

View Miami vs Dallas Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
Sportsbooks had the Cowboys pegged as 9-point favorites in this matchup. The total, meanwhile, was listed by the books at 44.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Cowboys sit at No. 3 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Dolphins are at No. 21 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Cowboys will win this game 25-22.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Dallas's No. 9-ranked offense, averaging 25 PPG, against a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 6 this week at 18.6 PPG. The Cowboys aerial game is averaging 277 yards per game, more than the Dolphins secondary allows through the air, 251.1 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Dolphins own the league's No. 4-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 92.8 yards per game when on the road. Dallas, on the other hand, rates No. 1 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Last time out for Miami, they were a 35-8 winner as they battled the Bills at home. The Dolphins covered in the match as a 3-point favorite, while 43 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. Miami comes off a game where it received a 3-TD performance from Matt Moore in defeating the Bills 35-8.

In their last action, Dallas was a 27-24 winner on the road against the Redskins. They failed to cover the 7–point spread as favorites, while the combined score (51) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Dallas comes off a game where it received a 3-TD performance from Tony Romo in defeating the Redskins 27-24.

Miami Dolphins Trends:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7

Dallas Cowboys Trends:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5

A few Dolphins at Cowboys trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Dallas's last 14 games at home

Next up:
Miami home to Oakland, Sunday, December 4
Dallas at Arizona, Sunday, December 4

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