A week after getting shut out by Jacksonville, the Indianapolis offense didn’t pick up a first down until the second quarter of its Week 14 contest at Houston. However, Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton found their groove and Indy’s pass rush got to Deshaun Watson for five sacks in the Colts’ 24-21 road win. They improved to 7-6 overall and 6-6-1 against the spread.
A highly questionable offensive pass interference call against the Eagles late in the fourth quarter allowed Dallas to survive, advance and win 29-23 in overtime. Their fifth consecutive victory improved their overall and against the spread records to 8-5 this season.
The Colts opened as 2.5-point home favorites, but that ticked up to -3 Sunday night. The Cowboys moneyline is +109 and the point total 47 after it opened at 45.5. Dallas has covered the spread in five straight games, while Indianapolis’ win at Houston was its first cover in three games.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Colts’ last four games (avg. combined score: 37.5).
- The Colts are 7-0 SU in their last seven games as home favorites.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys’ last 10 games on the road (avg. combined score: 33.8).
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 14
Cowboys – Starting right guard Zack Martin reaggravated a knee injury and was forced to leave the Eagles game early. The initial injury sustained back in Week 10 didn’t require him to miss any time then, but his status for Week 15 is up in the air. Martin plays a key role in Sportsbook running lanes for Ezekiel Elliott and keeping Dak Prescott upright. The timing couldn’t come at a worse time as the Colts have featured the ninth-best rush defense over the past three weeks. They’ve allowed less than 94 yards per game during that stretch.
Carson Wentz completed 22 of 32 passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions without any semblance of a rush attack. Andrew Luck, who passed for 399 yards at Houston, can carve this Dallas secondary up assuming he gets time to throw.
Colts – T.Y. Hilton missed several practices last week and was questionable with a shoulder injury heading into Sunday morning. After a slow start, he punished the Texans for 199 yards on nine receptions.
Tight end Eric Ebron’s Pro Bowl-worthy season rolled on with four receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys secondary just allowed Eagles tight ends to combine for nine receptions, 82 yards and one (should have been two) touchdowns. Dallas ranks in the bottom 10 in yards and receptions allowed to opposing tight ends.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: Thank You (T.Y.), Next
Hilton’s 199 receiving yards against the Texans was the 11th 150-yards-or-better performance of his career, which set a new franchise record. One could make an argument that the Colts lose and fail to cover the +4 at Houston if not for Hilton. Indianapolis is 1-4 against the spread when Hilton is inactive and 62-45-3 against the spread – a cover percentage of 56.4 – when he suits up.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: OHHHH, WHAT A (LACK OF) RUSH
Let’s circle back to Martin’s knee injury and recent improvements to the Colts rush defense. Since 2016, the Cowboys are 0-5 straight up and against the spread when held to fewer than 93 rush yards in a game. Ezekiel Elliott has been held to 78 or fewer rush yards in six games this season, but only once over the past four games, which just happens to coincide with the arrival of Amari Cooper.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA FORECAST
Inside.
Ageless wonder Adam Vinatieri is 18 of 22 on field goals and 35 of 37 on extra-point attempts this season. Cowboys rookie boot Brett Maher set a Dallas franchise record when he connected from 62 yards against the Eagles. He’s now 27 of 32 on field goals and 25 of 26 on extra points this season.
MY LEAN
Note: this is the Cowboys’ first road game in a month.
The game will come down to the Colts rush defense vs Ezekiel Elliott and who wins the turnover battle. After Dak’s two interceptions and one lost fumble against the Eagles, the Cowboys’ turnover margin is now zero (0) on the season. Philadelphia had no business being in that game and because of these miscues, Dallas needed overtime to win and lucked into a tip-drill cover on the Cooper touchdown.
My lean – assuming Martin sits out this week with the bad knee – is Colts win and cover.
