Pats Could Be Dangerous As Home Dogs Against Dallas

The Cowboys (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) have been the NFL’s best bet this season, but their perfect ATS mark will be put to the test when they visit New England (2-3, 2-3). The Patriots have covered 13 of their last 15 games as an underdog at Gillette Stadium.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Dallas was just a 1-point favorite when this line originally opened but moved to 4.5-point chalk after whipping the Giants 44-20 last week. The total also saw some early movement to the OVER, increasing to 49.5 at most betting sites by Monday night.

Dallas News & Notes

A healthy Dak Prescott isn’t the only reason the Cowboys are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS through five games. Prescott has certainly been great, throwing for 302 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Giants, but the two-pronged ground attack of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard has also made Dallas difficult to defend. Both backs had more than 100 yards from scrimmage against New York as Dallas racked up 200-plus rushing yards for the third straight week.

The Cowboys defense has also carried its share of the load, especially defensive back Trevon Diggs. Diggs has intercepted at least one pass in each game this season for Dallas, which has recorded two or more takeaways in a league-high nine straight games dating back to last season. Anthony Brown also had an interception against New York, returning it 45 yards for a touchdown.

New England News & Notes

The Patriots are still searching for their first victory in Foxborough this season, having dropped all three of their games at Gillette Stadium. However, two of those losses came by two points or less, and the Pats have never lost their first four home games of a season in the Bill Belichick era. They’ve also been dangerous for years as a home dog, covering 13 of their last 15 outings.

New England is riding the momentum of a come-from-behind victory in Houston, where Mac Jones directed a pair of fourth-quarter drives to lead the Pats back from a late seven-point deficit. New England was without four regulars on its offensive line but still managed to run for a season-high 126 yards and allowed Jones to be sacked just once.

The Patriots might have beaten Houston by more than three points had they not continued to bog down in the red zone. New England scored touchdowns on just two of its five trips inside the 20-yard line and enters Week 6 ranked last in the NFL in red-zone scoring percentage, converting on six of 16 opportunities.

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How Dallas Will Cover

The Cowboys need to continue forcing turnovers to mask a defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season. Fortunately for Dallas, New England ranks near the bottom of the league in turnover ratio, giving the ball away nine times in its first five games.

How New England Will Cover

The Patriots can’t continue to settle for field goals if they’re going to keep pace with a Cowboys offense averaging 34 points per game. How efficient New England is in the red zone should go a long way to determining whether the Pats can hang inside this number.

Computer Pick: Patriots +4

For more NFL Week 6 predictions, check out the NFL Computer Picks page.