Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

In a pick’em home matchup, Cincinnati fell behind 28-0 to the Cleveland Browns, lost Andy Dalton to a thumb injury and allowed its in-state rival to snap a 25-game road losing streak. The 35-20 loss dropped the Bengals to 5-6 overall and against the spread. They’ve lost five of their last six games after starting the season 4-1.

Denver turned four Steelers turnovers into 14 points as the Broncos pulled off a home upset win over Pittsburgh 24-17. They’re now 5-6 overall and 5-5-1 against the spread with wins over the Chargers and Steelers the past two weeks and ATS covers in five of their past six games.

Cincinnati opened as a 1.5-point home favorite, but some books flipped to Broncos -3.5 when it was learned that Dalton was placed on injured reserve with torn ligaments in his thumb. Cincinnati’s moneyline is now +165 and the total opened at 45.5, but dipped to 42 Monday evening.

Broncos vs Bengals Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 12

Broncos – If running back Phillip Lindsay earned more touches, he would be competing with Saquon Barkley and Baker Mayfield for Rookie of the Year. He may not win the postseason hardware, but the rookie out of Colorado has averaged 5.8 yards per rush this season, which ranks fourth among all active running backs. He’s averaged nearly 87 rush yards with five touchdowns over the past five games.

The Bengals have allowed 198 rush yards per game over the past three weeks.

Bengals – Second-string quarterback Jeff Driskel completed 17 of 29 passes for 155 yards with a touchdown and also rushed three times for nine yards with a second score against the Browns. The third-year quarterback out of Louisiana Tech has never started an NFL game. Journeyman Tom Savage was also picked up and will serve as Driskel’s backup.

A.J. Green should return after missing the past three games with a toe injury. It’ll be interesting to see how his return impacts Tyler Boyd’s role. The third-year receiver has averaged five to six receptions for nearly 90 receiving yards over his past four games.

Cincinnati was penalized 13 times for 96 yards. It’s hard to find a rhythm with so much laundry on the field.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: RAGGEDY ANDY

Dalton has only missed four games in eight seasons. Cincinnati is 2-2 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread when he’s been inactive.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: UP, UP AND AWAY

The Broncos have covered in three consecutive away games. Since 2015, teams that have covered three consecutive away games are 42-28-5 against the spread in their next away game.

CINCINNATI, OHIO FORECAST

Cloudy with temperatures in the low 50s and 50 percent chance of showers. Winds 10-15 miles per hour. It’s not bad for early December weather in Ohio.

Cincinnati kicker Randy Bullock had a 50-yard field goal blocked and missed his first extra point of the season in the Bengals’ loss to the Browns. He’s now missed field goals in back-to-back games. Denver’s Brandon McManus is 14 of 17 on field-goal attempts and 24-for-24 on extra points. All three of his misses came in a two-game stretch, in Weeks 8 and 9.

MY LEAN

Cincinnati has been a home dog of 3.5 or more points only three times since 2013. The OVER has hit nine times in the past 10 games under those conditions. Denver hasn’t been a road favorite of 3.5 or more points in two years and in that last contest, the Broncos defense carried a Paxton Lynch-led offense that finished with only 206 total yards. We could see the same scenario play out in Cincinnati.

The Broncos pass rush got to Ben Roethlisberger with six hits on the quarterback and two sacks. This scouting report isn’t ideal for a guy making his first NFL start. Plus, with the way Lindsay has rushed the ball during this two-game win streak over the Chargers and Steelers, the Broncos are playing with a lot of confidence, while the #FireMarvin hashtags haunt Cincinnati.

I’m leaning Broncos to cover.