Chiefs Double-Digit Home Favorites Over Improving Broncos

With the AFC West title already secured, the Chiefs look to improve their AFC positioning when they host a Denver team they’ve beaten eight straight times. However, the Broncos are 2-0 with rookie Drew Lock at QB, including last week’s stunning upset of Houston.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Whether it’s due to the Broncos’ recent play or the sore hand of Patrick Mahomes, early money has poured in on Denver, moving the Broncos down to +10 by Monday night. There’s also been strong support for the UNDER, which had dipped to 45.5.

Denver News & Notes

Might John Elway finally have found a quarterback? Rookie Drew Lock is off to a 2-0 start as the Broncos’ new pivot, leading Denver to scores on its first five possessions Sunday in a shocking 38-24 win at Houston.

Lock threw for 235 yards in the first half alone — the most first-half passing yards by a Denver QB in more than five years — and finished with 309 yards and three touchdowns. “He’s a … rock star,” an appreciative Broncos linebacker Von Miller told reporters.

Strong starts have become a trend lately for the Broncos, who have held a halftime lead in five of their last six games and eight of their last 10. Denver is also playing hard down the stretch for first-year head coach Vic Fangio, covering five of its last six outings and allowing 20 points or less in four of those games.

To keep the momentum going this week, however, the Broncos may need to overcome the absence of two key rookies. Tight end Noah Fant, who already has two 100-yard receiving games this year, is nursing foot and hip injuries, while defensive end Dre’Mont Jones has a high ankle ailment that may force him out of the lineup.

Kansas City News & Notes

The last time Patrick Mahomes faced Denver, he was forced out of the game with a dislocated right knee. This time, he might already be injured going in. Mahomes hurt his throwing hand when he fell awkwardly to the ground in the first quarter of last week’s 23-16 win at New England.

Although Mahomes stayed in the game and X-rays afterward were negative, the Chiefs acknowledged that the injury had an effect on how they utilized their second-year superstar. K.C. employed a shorter passing game with more shallow crosses, and Mahomes finished the contest with just one touchdown pass as the Chiefs managed only a field goal in the second half.

The concern about Mahomes and the continued spiral of the Patriots offense may have kept KC’s improved defensive play under the radar. In their last three games, against the Chargers, Raiders and Patriots, the Chiefs have allowed an average of 14 points and went 3-0 to the UNDER.

With KC staying UNDER the total in five of its last six home games vs division rivals and in 26 of its last 35 home games vs teams with losing records, don’t be surprised if we see another lower-scoring affair this week.

Betting Pick: UNDER 45.5

I’m anticipating some regression by Lock after last week’s performance, and the Chiefs might play things close to the vest on offense to protect Mahomes.