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Chiefs Favored To Continue Dominance Over Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the Denver Broncos (6-5, 6-5). The Chiefs will look to keep things rolling against the Broncos with another win in Kansas City on Sunday night.

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
  • Date/Time: December 5, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • TV Coverage: NBC
  • Opening Odds: Chiefs -9.5 | O/U 52 (Line History)
  • Broncos vs Chiefs Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as 9.5-point home favorites and have been bet up slightly to Kansas City -10. The total has seen more significant movement all the way down to 47.5 points after opening at 50.5 points. The UNDER is 5-1 in Denver’s last six games against the Chiefs.

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Denver News & Notes

Pat Surtain II had two interceptions in last Sunday’s 28-13 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, taking the second one to the house for a 70-yard return for a touchdown to give the Broncos a 28-7 lead.

The Broncos improved to 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four games with the victory. Denver’s defense has allowed only 17.3 points per game over that four-game stretch and only 13 points per game in the three wins.

Drew Lock replaced an injured Teddy Bridgewater in the first half and went 4-for-7 with 26 passing yards and an interception. The Broncos turned back to Bridgewater, who played through his leg injury and finished the game going 11-for-18 with 129 passing yards, one touchdown pass and no interceptions.

Bridgewater is listed as probable to start this week while Lock’s status as the team’s primary backup is in question after his poor performance.

Kansas City News & Notes

The Chiefs wrapped up the month of November with a perfect 4-0 SU record, fueled by an unbelievable turnaround on defense.

Kansas City’s defense had another dominant performance against the Dallas Cowboys in the Chiefs’ last game, holding the Cowboys’ high-powered offense to only 276 total yards and forcing three turnovers in the team’s 19-9 win as 2.5-point home favorites. The unit has allowed only 11.8 points per game over the team’s last four games.

And now the Chiefs will have the chance to extend their lead in the AFC West coming off a bye week. Andy Reid has compiled a sensational 19-3 regular-season record over the course of his coaching career after a week off and has combined with Patrick Mahomes to produce a 7-1 SU record off a bye week, including postseason play.

How Denver Will Cover

Denver will not be able to keep up with the Chiefs on offense. The Broncos are getting plenty of points to work with as 10-point dogs and will cover the spread if they are able to get another strong performance out of their defense.

How Kansas City Will Cover

Andy Reid is known for his bye week adjustments, and this Kansas City offense was in need of some after producing 20 points or less in four of the team’s last five games. If the defense continues to play well and the offensive adjustments work, a blowout win could be in order.

Computer Pick: Chiefs -10

  • Best Spread
    BOVADA Intertops
  • Best Moneyline
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For more Week 13 predictions, visit our NFL Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games vs AFC teams.
  • Kansas City is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games.
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in Denver’s last 5 games.