Can Broncos Continue Strong ATS Play as Big ’Dogs in Minnesota?

The Denver Broncos won their first game with rookie quarterback Brandon Allen at home, but traveling to Minnesota to face the surging Vikings is a different story, as the Broncos open as double-digit underdogs. While Allen’s debut performance was encouraging, the total may be the best place to find action this Sunday.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Vikings have won five of their last six games by an average of 12.4 points, so it’s no surprise they opened as 10-point home favorites against a struggling Broncos team. Early action has favored Minnesota, as the line shifted to 10.5, as well as bettors jumping on the OVER for a 38-point Sportsbook total, as it has already increased to 39.5.

Denver News & Notes

Denver had lost two straight, failed to top 20 points in four straight games and quarterback Joe Flacco went down for the year, replaced by rookie Brandon Allen as the Broncos prepared to host the Cleveland Browns in Week 9.

Despite all that, Allen was impressive in his debut, throwing for 192 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers, as the Broncos won 24-19 heading into their Week 10 bye.

While Denver’s offense normally runs through the ground game, expect Allen, as well as receiver Courtland Sutton and tight end Noah Fant, to be featured a lot against a Minnesota team that is clicking on offense and has one of the league’s best run defenses but has given up the seventh-most passing touchdowns in the league.

The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games; if they want to continue that recent trend, Allen will need to prove that his first NFL game was not a fluke.

Minnesota News & Notes

The Vikings had a big showdown last week on Sunday Night Football, as they traveled to Dallas to take on the Cowboys and came away with a big 28-24 win. The win highlighted the perfect recipe for Minnesota to have success well into January: quarterback Kirk Cousins was efficient and had no turnovers and running back Dalvin Cook was heavily involved and nearly unstoppable, logging 26 carries and seven receptions for 183 total yards and a touchdown.

Over their last eight games, Cook has averaged 153 scrimmage yards in their six wins … and 93 yards in their two losses. The Broncos still have one of the premier defenses in the league, so the Vikings will need another big day from Cook if they want to build upon their recent trend of going 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games.

Betting Pick: Vikings -10.5

Denver’s defense is strong, but Minnesota’s offense has been really good, and Denver’s offensive strength plays right into the Vikings defense. I’ll take the home team to cover.