Both the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos enter Week 6 not knowing who they will start at quarterback. The Broncos (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS) could get back starter Drew Lock from injury, while the Patriots (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) hope Cam Newton can come off the COVID-19 list in time to take the field. How the situation pans out will have massive betting implications.
- Date/Time: October 18, 1 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Gillette Stadium
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Patriots -9.5 | O/U 45.5 (Line History)
- Broncos vs Patriots Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The game opened with the Patriots as -9.5 favorites and has remained relatively stable even through Week 5 when the game was still up in the air. The game total has been set at 45.5 points, which should come as no surprise with two strong defenses colliding.
Denver News & Notes
The Broncos are in rough shape. Missing upwards of 15 starters including their quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, right tackle and top pass rusher, the Broncos have little hope of staying in games against quality teams as currently constructed.
The latest reports are that Broncos quarterback Drew Lock has an outside shot of playing in Week 6. If that happens, it is likely to affect the line significantly as Brett Rypien would be the likely starter if Lock can’t go. This is a situation for bettors to monitor closely.
Despite the injuries, the Broncos defense ranks 12th in DVOA (overall efficiency) and has allowed just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, good for sixth in the league. Of course, how the defense performs this week will largely depend on who starts at quarterback for the Patriots.
New England News & Notes
From a betting perspective, this game really comes down to Cam Newton’s availability. The Patriots quarterback has had what looks like a career resurrection in the early going this season, but a positive COVID-19 test held him out of Week 4 and his status is still up in the air. If Newton can’t play, either Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham would start in his place. Neither would be a great option against the Broncos defense.
Look for Patriots running back Damien Harris to get plenty of work regardless of who starts at quarterback. Harris had a career night in Week 4 in his first game off injured reserve, posting 17 carries for 100 yards and looking far more effective and efficient than incumbent Sony Michel, who was placed on IR this week.
Betting Pick: Patriots -9.5
Where to place your bets on this game is completely dependent on the quarterback situations. The most likely scenario seems to be Rypien vs Newton. If Newton plays, we would lean to the Pats covering the number, otherwise the UNDER seems like a lock-button bet.
- The UNDER is 20-7 in Denver’s last 27 games vs the AFC.
- New England is 5-0 SU and ATS vs Denver in their last 5 meetings.
- Denver is 7-21 SU in its last 28 games on the road.
