Week 16 gives us what might actually be the worst Monday nighter of the season when the tanking Raiders host the freshly eliminated from playoff contention, Broncos. This was not my favorite game to research or to write about but some serious reverse line movement on the total has once again helped guide my MNF bet.
Like last week, the total for the Monday nighter keeps dropping despite books taking the majority of bets on the OVER. I urged bettors to consider taking the UNDER last week and the Saints and Panthers combined for a paltry 21 points.
I’m not saying this is a guaranteed win or anything but this is the kind of reverse line movement sharp bettors love and it’s what’s helped me attain a 10-5 record with my MNF best bets this season.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Broncos and Raiders last 7 meetings.
- The Raiders are giving up 150.29 rushing yards per game at home this season.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos last 7 games (Average combined score: 39.43).
Broncos vs Raiders Game Center
Best bet for Broncos vs Raiders: UNDER 43.5
As I alluded to in the intro, I love the UNDER in this game (given the dramatic reverse line movement) and I locked in my bet early in the week. At the time of writing, the line was at 42 after Sportsbook at 45 and while I don’t like it as much at that number, I’m not going to get uppity about a point and a half.
Looking beyond the line movement, the trends point towards the UNDER as well with the Broncos on a seven-game streak of going below the total and the Broncos and Raiders playing to the UNDER in six of their last seven meetings.
Something else that could help this game go UNDER is the Broncos ability to run the ball and the Raiders inability to stop the run. Oakland ranks dead last in run defense heading into Week 16 and Denver is averaging over 137 rushing yards per game on the road this season. The Broncos should be able to chew up clock on the ground if they commit to the run and unless Phillip Lindsay starts ripping off big chunks, it’s difficult to see that leading to many points.
Yes, Oakland has been miserable at home and they haven’t stopped anyone at the Coliseum this season but I expect Gruden to put the clamps down in this divisional contest against a deflated Broncos team that was just mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
That said, neither side of this game interests me with motivation a dubious prospect for both Denver and Oakland.
Spread Bettors beware
Sitting at a key number of three, this is a tough spread – hence why I’m not betting it. There are some trends and stats that favor the Broncos in this spot, like their 5-2 ATS record against the Raiders in their last 7 games in Oakland but there are also plenty of stats and trends that speak negatively to both teams.
Unless you feel strongly about one side in this spot, I would strongly recommend sticking to the total or other game props
