Can Derrick Henry Or Saquon Barkley Win NFL MVP?

The NFL MVP is a quarterback award, we know that. The last 11 MVPs have all been won by passers.

But this year, there are a few running backs trying to change that. Derrick Henry made a big push in the first half of the season and peaked at +4000 odds, but now it's Saquon Barkley really climbing the NFL MVP odds, sitting at +500 with a few weeks to go.

I'll break down if a RB really has an actual shot to take home the award:

Current NFL MVP Odds - Non-Quarterbacks

While Saquon is the only non-quarterback in the top-15 in current NFL MVP odds, here are all the non-passers who rank close to the top of the current list:

Data from BetMGM as of December 4th, 2024

None of these non-QBs are at the top of current NFL MVP odds — that honor goes to Josh Allen at -280. But, Saquon now sits second in the market and is really scaring the sportsbooks.

Per BetMGM's data, 6.8% of all money for the MVP market is now resting on Barkley, which is more than guys like Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, or CJ Stroud. Barkley is actually the biggest liability of all MVP candidates, per BetMGM, meaning it'd hurt the books most if the Eagles RB won.

So, can he actually win?

Can Saquon Barkley Win The MVP?

Saquon is doing everything a running back needs to do to force himself into this convo. He's leading the NFL in rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per attempt, and total scrimmage yardage. He's on pace to get over 2,000 yards and finish at around 20 total touchdowns.

But, that still may not be enough for Barkley. There's a recent history of guys putting up this exact RB season and not winning the MVP. In 2020, Derrick Henry had over 2,000 rushing yards, led the NFL with 17 touchdowns, and still didn't get a SINGLE VOTE for the MVP award that season. Last year, Christian McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards and scrimmage yards and lost out to Lamar Jackson in what many (including I, a Ravens fan) would consider a down year for QBs.

The path for Barkley to win this award includes him getting to 20 TDs and 2,000 yards, but also seeing Lamar Jackson continue his suspect play of late and Josh Allen falling off a bit. That's certainly possible, but it's not really in Barkley's hands.

One thing going in Barkley's favor is his remaining schedule. Of the Eagles five remaining games, four will come against the Commanders, Cowboys, Panthers, and Giants — all some of the NFL's worst run defenses. Barkley has the chance to really put up some big days down the stretch, peaking at the right time to win over voters. At around +500 odds, I do think he's a decent bet in the MVP odds markets right now, though.

Can Derrick Henry Win The MVP?

Derrick Henry opened the season at +30000 to win NFL MVP, moved all the way up to +4000, but is now way down at +40000 at BetMGM. It seems his hopes of winning an MVP are dashed.

has really fallen off in recent weeks, going below 85 rushing yards in four of his last six games. He's also been held without a touchdown in the last two weeks. To win the MVP as a running back, you basically need a full season of perfection, and with a few dud games already Henry is out of the picture.

Can Non-QBs Win The NFL MVP?

We've had four non-quarterbacks win the NFL MVP this century. All four were running backs:

• 2000 Marshall Faulk (Rams)
• 2005 Shaun Alexander (Seahawks)
• 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers)
• 2012 Adrian Peterson (Vikings)

But, as you'll notice, we haven't had a non-QB win the award in 12 seasons. The NFL has become a pass-first league, and quarterbacks are dominating the NFL MVP voting because of it. Christian McCaffrey led football in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage last year, adding 21 total touchdowns. He finished just third in MVP voting and didn't get a single first-place vote.

For guys like Henry and Saquon to win, they need to have incredible offensive seasons AND no quarterback really ball out — a hard combination to pull off.