Broncos Big Home Favorites Over Wounded Lions

The Broncos have played to the UNDER in 17 of their last 23 games, while the Detroit offense has simply been bad the last six weeks. A 7-point spread seems a little scary for these unpredictable teams — a low-scoring game seems like a safer play in Week 16.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Lions are 2-11 SU in their last 13 road games when they’re underdogs and have lost five straight road games overall. Add in that they’re a dome team traveling to Denver in the winter and that bodes well for the Broncos, who opened as 7-point favorites. With Denver’s defense still strong, both offenses subpar and temperatures likely cold, there isn’t much scoring expected as the total opened at just 37.5 points.

Detroit News & Notes

The Lions are limping toward the end of another lost season, both figuratively and literally. Detroit got shredded 38-17 last week by Tampa Bay, giving up 458 passing yards and four touchdowns.

The Lions have been without Matthew Stafford and Kerryon Johnson for weeks, while they now also have lost Marvin Jones and backup running back Bo Scarbrough due to injury. Trotting out lineups week after week that are seriously lacking talent, the Lions have lost seven straight games and 10 of their last 11.

Detroit is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games, and while there’s a chance Johnson and/or Scarbrough may return from injury, the Lions are facing a tough Denver defense in Week 16. With a depleted offense, it’s hard to see Detroit putting up enough points to compete.

Denver News & Notes

It was a winter wonderland for the Broncos last week, as they endured snowy conditions at Arrowhead Stadium to face off against the Chiefs. And, for the second time this year, Denver was humbled by Kansas City, losing 23-3.

The Broncos scored a total of nine points in their two losses to the Chiefs, and the problem in those games — as it has been all season — was a lack of offense. Rookie quarterback Drew Lock completed just 45 percent of his passes for 208 yards and an interception in the loss, and while he won his previous two starts, he’s yet to get any support from the Denver running game. After averaging 113.1 yards through the first 10 games of the season, Denver has only gained an average of 77.8 yards on the ground in its last four contests.

The good news is the Broncos face a Detroit team that allows the second-most yards per game and seventh-most points per game. The bad news is that Denver is 1-5 SU and ATS the last six times it was favored, and the Broncos are favored by a touchdown this week.

Betting Pick: UNDER 37.5

Both of the offenses in this game are bad, while neither team actually has anything to play for. I’m not expecting many points in this contest, so I’ll take the UNDER.