Folks, stop the presses! The Detroit Lions might finally have a running game. For the first time since 2013, when Reggie Bush roamed the backfield, the Lions featured a 100-yard running back. Rookie Kerryon Johnson finished with 16 carries for 101 yards as the Lions shredded the Patriots defense via ground and air. Matthew Stafford has five touchdown passes in the past two games and the offense seems to be clicking ahead of their Week 4 matchup against the reeling Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott’s 7.9 yards per rush wasn’t enough to pick up a Week 3 win at Seattle, but was enough of a positive to woo oddsmakers to make them 3-point home favorites, the Lions moneyline +169 and the O/U total 44.
- The Cowboys are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorite.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 30.0).
- The Lions are 3-1 ATS in their last four games.
COWBOYS RUSH O VS LIONS RUSH D
The Cowboys’ offensive woes have been defined in many ways over the past three weeks, but anemic seems to embody the very essence of their production to date. However, this matchup favors the one-dimensional Cowboys offense perfectly.
Through three games, the Cowboys rank 31st in pass offense at 145 yards per pop and dink-and-dunk 5.7 yards per attempt, while the Lions secondary and pass defense is tops in the league as they’ve allowed only 152 pass yards per game.
How the Lions can be 1-2 with such a statistically “elite” pass defense is easily debunked when you twist the prism to see their rush defense ranks 31st in the NFL and they allow 5.4 yards per rush attempt. Zeke Elliott fantasy owners are giddy.
This matchup is what the Cowboys so desperately need to spark their anemic offense out of an early-season malaise.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: MY ROD AND MY STAFF’ORD, THEY COMFORT ME
After a rocky Week 1, when the Jets picked him off four times, Stafford has averaged 304.5 pass yards per game with five touchdowns and only one interception over the past two games.
Through the first three weeks, Dallas ranks fourth against the pass, allowing 183 yards per game and only three touchdowns, but is one of three defensive secondaries in search of a first interception.
Why these background stats matter is because Stafford’s ability to toss multiple touchdowns in a game definitely impacts the Lions’ final outcome straight up and against the spread.
The Lions are 17-47 SU and 17-45-2 ATS when Stafford throws one or no touchdown passes, but 44-25 SU and 40-27-2 ATS when he throws two or more touchdowns.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: FEED THE ZEKE, COVER THE SPREAD?
After missing six games last season, Ezekiel Elliott has looked solid through the first three weeks of the season, save for the fumble at Seattle last Sunday. Zeke is averaging 91.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry with two scores. Considering how much the Cowboys offense has leaned on Zeke his first two seasons and change, that 90-yard per game threshold is one I wanted to dig into.
It turns out when Elliott rushes for 90 or more yards, it’s good news for Dallas, but not great news for Cowboys backers. They’re 15-5 straight up when Zeke goes for 90 or more rush yards, but just 13-7 against the spread.
DALLAS, TX FORECAST
They’ll play inside AT&T with retractable dome roof.
Lions kicker Matt Prater has connected on 88.8 percent of his field goals inside a dome during his career and 14 of 17 attempts inside domes with retractable roofs.
MY PICK
Detroit isn’t as bad as the team that laid an egg against the Jets in Week 1, but continues to pay for those sins. Without Sean Lee, the Cowboys defense will show some cracks in the foundation and it’s not ideal timing with the Lions rush attack evolving.
Unless Dak Prescott is provided an opportunity to get creative by calling his own number and maximizing the run-pass option, the Cowboys are sunk in this matchup. Think this one’s close, but the Lions rush defense won’t be able to stop Zeke and an upset-win hangover will be their downfall. I’ll take the Cowboys to cover at home.
