Through eight weeks, the NFC North is a virtual toss-up, as all four teams have a realistic shot of winning the division. Two of those teams that are coming off losses, the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, renew acquaintances at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 9. Sportsbooks opened the Vikings as 4-point home favorites with a total of 50.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Lions’ last nine games vs the Vikings (avg. combined score: 34.11).
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Vikings’ last eight games at home (avg. combined score: 40.63).
- The Lions are 6-1 SU in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
Expect both teams to air it out in Minny
Both the Lions and Vikings have preferred to get the offensive damage done through the air this year, as Detroit has run the ball on 38.5 percent of its offensive possessions while Minnesota is 33.8 percent in that regard. The Lions have averaged 275 yards through the air (183 per game against conference opposition) and have 14 passing touchdowns, while the Vikes have recorded 315 pass yards per game (425 against the NFC) to go along with 16 touchdown passes.
The Vikings are historically excellent heading into the bye week, as Minnesota is 8-1 SU and ATS in its past nine games before the bye. The Lions have been a great spread bet of late, however, as Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its past six contests. The Lions have traditionally struggled when traveling to Minnesota, going 4-16 SU in their last 20 meetings with the Vikings in Minneapolis.
Is another UNDER in store in this matchup? Seven of the past nine meetings between the Lions and Vikings have gone UNDER the total, with an average combined score of 34.1 points. The UNDER is also 6-2 in the Vikings’ past eight games at home, with an average combined score of 40.1 points.
Which team is going to rebound?
The Vikings’ 30-20 loss on Sunday Night Football served as a microcosm of Minnesota’s season, as the club’s stats looked good on paper yet it didn’t translate into a win. The Vikings sit behind the Chicago Bears in second place in the NFC North, so a win over the Lions could go a long way into re-establishing their position as the front-runner in the division.
The Lions are coming off a disappointing 28-14 loss at home to the Seattle Seahawks in a game in which they got outperformed in every aspect from start to finish. The Seahawks’ 21-point second quarter proved to be too much for the Lions to overcome. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has amassed 1,696 passing yards on the year to go along with 12 passing touchdowns and will be leaned on heavily to go toe to toe with Kirk Cousins’ Vikings aerial attack.
My pick: take the UNDER
Sportsbooks are clearly respecting both teams’ offenses in this one, evidenced by the Sportsbook O/U number of 50. I think that number is a little high due to their history of going UNDER the total, and Minnesota’s defense has fared much better at home compared to on the road of late. Expect this one to stay below the total in Week 9.
