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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins won their first three games this season, but have lost their last two. They'll try to avoid a third-straight defeat when they take on the 2-4 Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon at Sun Life Stadium (1 pm ET, CBS).

Last time out Miami lost at home to Baltimore on a late field goal. The Dolphins have also been out-gained in every game this season.

Buffalo, meanwhile, just lost in overtime at home to Cincinnati, and may have to go with a third starting quarterback of the season, with Thaddeus Lewis dealing with a sprained foot. The Bills just signed the recently released Matt Flynn, and he may get the start Sunday.

Head-to-head trends favor the Dolphins (7-3 SU & ATS past 10 vs Bills) but Miami has not performed well in this situation as a big home favorite. The Dolphins are just 1-8 ATS in nine games as double-digit home chalk since 1992.

In the early betting Miami, which has won seven of the last 10 games of this AFC East rivalry, was favored by 10 points over Buffalo.

The Bills will look to vanquish their hosts on Sunday, as they are 4-2 ATS versus the spread this season, while the Dolphins are 3-2 ATS. Buffalo is 4-2 against the total, while Miami is 4-1 versus the number.

View Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Odds and Stats.

The Bills were listed as 11.5-point underdogs at sportsbooks such as TopBet, with the total listed at 41. Check out Bovada for line moves and underdog action later in the week.

The Dolphins - Bills odds would favor the Dolphins if the lines were set according to power ranks. Miami is rated No. 19 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Bills sit at No. 25. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 21-19 win for the Dolphins.

In their last action, Buffalo was a 27-24 loser at home against the Bengals. They covered the 5.5-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (51) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Ryan Tannehill led the way last time out for the Dolphins, connecting for 307 passing yards, but failing to earn the victory in a 26-23 loss to the Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Miami's No. 16-ranked offense, averaging 22.8 PPG, against a Bills defense that ranks No. 23 this week at 26.17 PPG. The Dolphins aerial game is averaging 247 yards per game, less than the Bills secondary allows through the air, 270.83 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Bills own the league's No. 30-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 136.5 yards per game when on the road. Miami, on the other hand, rates No. 28 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

A few Bills at Dolphins trends to consider:
Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

Next up:
Buffalo at New Orleans, Sunday, October 27th
Miami at New England, Sunday, October 27th