The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock for the 2021 NFL Draft after finishing 1-15 SU and 7-9 ATS in a 2020 season to forget. Having already announced they’ll be taking Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence as the No. 1 overall pick, the Jaguars should see a modest improvement in both the regular-season standings and as a bet against the spread according to historical data.
Odds Shark has one of the most expansive betting databases in the world with NFL ATS records dating all the way back to 1985. We went back and looked at every NFL team that got the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and found 70.5 percent of teams saw an ATS winning percentage increase from the previous season. That’s 24 of 34 teams with an improved spread record!
In fact, teams with the first overall pick since 1985 saw an average ATS winning percentage increase of 13.6 percentage points from the previous season.
The most recent example is the Cincinnati Bengals, who took their quarterback of the future in Joe Burrow with the first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Bengals saw a minor improvement in the standings, going from 2-14 in 2019 to 4-11-1 in 2020.
However, they improved by leaps and bounds as an ATS bet, going from 6-9-1 ATS in 2019 to 9-6-1 ATS in 2020 to strengthen the theory that teams that pick first overall in the NFL draft will improve their ATS record year over year.
Here are all the ATS records for each team that picked first overall in the draft and how they fared the following season:
(DISCLAIMER: We did not include the 1999 Cleveland Browns or 2002 Houston Texans in the figures above as they were expansion teams with no ATS record in the previous season.)
| Team | Previous Season ATS | Draft Season ATS | % Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 Bills | 6-10 (37.5%) | 5-10-1 (33.3%) | -4.2% |
| 1986 Buccaneers | 5-9-2 (35.7%) | 6-10 (37.5%) | +1.8% |
| 1987 Buccaneers | 6-10 (37.5%) | 7-8 (46.7%) | +9.2% |
| 1988 Falcons | 6-8-1 (42.9%) | 9-7 (56.3%) | +13.4% |
| 1989 Cowboys | 6-9-1 (40.0%) | 6-10 (37.5%) | -2.5% |
| 1990 Colts | 6-10 (37.5%) | 8-8 (50.0%) | +12.5% |
| 1991 Cowboys | 9-7 (56.3%) | 13-3 (81.3%) | +25.0% |
| 1992 Colts | 5-11 (31.3%) | 9-7 (56.3%) | +25.0% |
| 1993 Patriots | 7-9 (43.8%) | 10-6 (62.5%) | +18.7% |
| 1994 Bengals | 8-8 (50.0%) | 8-8 (50.0%) | 0.0% |
| 1995 Bengals | 8-8 (50.0%) | 9-6-1 (60.0%) | +10.0% |
| 1996 Jets | 6-10 (37.5%) | 8-8 (50.0%) | +12.5% |
| 1997 Rams | 6-10 (37.5%) | 6-9-1 (40.0%) | +2.5% |
| 1998 Colts | 7-8-1 (46.7%) | 6-8-2 (42.9%) | -3.8% |
| 1999 Browns | N/A | 7-8-1 (46.7%) | N/A |
| 2000 Browns | 7-8-1 (46.7%) | 5-11 (31.3%) | -15.4% |
| 2001 Falcons | 7-9 (43.8%) | 6-7-3 (46.2%) | +2.4% |
| 2002 Texans | N/A | 8-8 (50.0%) | N/A |
| 2003 Bengals | 4-12 (25.0%) | 9-6-1 (60.0%) | +35.0% |
| 2004 Chargers | 6-10 (37.5%) | 13-1-2 (92.9%) | +55.4% |
| 2005 49ers | 5-11 (31.3%) | 8-8 (50.0%) | +18.7% |
| 2006 Texans | 7-9 (43.8%) | 7-9 (43.8%) | 0.0% |
| 2007 Raiders | 6-10 (37.5%) | 6-10 (37.5%) | 0.0% |
| 2008 Dolphins | 5-9-2 (35.7%) | 8-8 (50.0%) | +14.3% |
| 2009 Lions | 7-9 (43.8%) | 4-10-2 (28.6%) | -15.2% |
| 2010 Rams | 7-9 (43.8%) | 10-6 (62.5%) | +18.7% |
| 2011 Panthers | 4-12 (25.0%) | 9-7 (56.3%) | +31.3% |
| 2012 Colts | 6-10 (37.5%) | 11-5 (68.8%) | +31.3% |
| 2013 Chiefs | 5-11 (31.3%) | 9-7 (56.3%) | +25.0% |
| 2014 Texans | 4-12 (25.0%) | 9-6-1 (60.0%) | +35.0% |
| 2015 Buccaneers | 7-9 (43.8%) | 7-9 (43.8%) | 0.0% |
| 2016 Rams | 7-8-1 (46.7%) | 4-11-1 (26.7%) | -20.0% |
| 2017 Browns | 3-12-1 (20.0%) | 4-12 (25.0%) | +5.0% |
| 2018 Browns | 4-12 (25.0%) | 10-6 (62.5%) | +37.5% |
| 2019 Cardinals | 7-8-1 (46.7%) | 9-5-2 (64.3%) | +17.6% |
| 2020 Bengals | 6-9-1 (42.3%) | 9-6-1 (60.0%) | +17.7% |
Biggest Jumps
2003 Bengals
After finishing the season 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS, the Bengals fired Dick LeBeau, hired Marvin Lewis and drafted Carson Palmer with the No. 1 overall pick. Although Palmer didn’t play a down in the 2003 regular season, Cincinnati finished the season 9-6-1 ATS and improved year over year by 35 percentage points in ATS winning percentage.
2004 Chargers
Going 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS with Drew Brees as your quarterback in 2003 seems nearly impossible for this stacked Chargers squad. They regrouped and ended up having the best ATS season for a team in our database after getting the No. 1 pick (they drafted Eli Manning but dealt him to the Giants for Philip Rivers, who threw eight passes in two games in 2004). San Diego went 13-1-2 ATS for a 55.4-point increase in winning percentage from 2003.
2014 Texans
Unlike the previous two teams, the Texans did not take a quarterback and chose Jadeveon Clowney with the top pick. They finished 2013 with a 4-12 ATS record but jumped to 9-6-1 ATS in 2014 for a 35-point increase in winning percentage year over year. While they didn’t have the largest ATS winning percentage increase in our database, to improve that significantly with a new coach in Bill O’Brien and with Tom Savage as the quarterback might be the most impressive.
Biggest Drops
2009 Lions
Coming off a 2-14 SU and 7-9 ATS campaign in 2008, the Lions were supposed to finally get over the hump with franchise QB Matthew Stafford picked in the 2009 draft. Well, he struggled in his rookie campaign, hurt his shoulder near the end of the season and the Lions finished the 2009 regular season at 4-10-2 ATS for a -15.2 ATS winning percentage decrease from 2008.
2016 Rams
After trading up to get the first overall pick in 2016 from the Tennessee Titans, the Rams selected Jared Goff and it was an immediate disaster. Goff started seven games in 2016 and in those outings, the Rams went 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS to wrap up the season 4-11-1 ATS after going 7-9 ATS in 2015. That drop represents the biggest win percentage decrease for a team getting the top pick in the draft at -20 percentage points. Ouch!
