Tampa Bay was an upset Sportsbook in Minnesota in Week 2 but they come home to face the Falcons, knowing they have been money-losers at home against the spread.
In their past 20 home games, the Bucs are a woeful 4-16 ATS. They face an emotional Atlanta team that got past Philadelphia on Sunday night in Michael Vick's return. The spread opened as a PK at most sportsbooks and Tampa is 6-2 ATS in the past 8 vs the Falcons.
The Bucs have been tough as underdogs lately, going 6-1 ATS past 7 games in that role.
View Atlanta vs Tampa Bay Odds and Stats.
Betting Line:
Sportsbooks had the Buccaneers pegged as 1-point underdogs in this matchup. The total, meanwhile, was listed by the books at 45.5.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The OddsShark Power Rankings have the Buccaneers at No. 31 and the Falcons at No. 28 heading into this contest. Handicapping models project a 23-18 result in favor of the Buccaneers.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Tampa Bay's No. 18-ranked offense (22 PPG) against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 29 at 30.5 PPG. The Buccaneers passing attack has averaged 244.5 yards per game, less than the Falcons give up through the air (301.5 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Falcons feature the league's No. 7-rated road run defense, allowing 88 yards per game. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, ranks No. 27 in rushing offense at home.
In their last action, Atlanta was a 35-31 Sportsbook at home against the Eagles. They covered the 1–point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (66) was profitable news for OVER bettors. In their last game, the Falcons got 4 passing scores out of Matt Ryan en route to a 35-31 win over the Eagles on Sunday at Georgia Dome.
The Buccaneers were a 24-20 Sportsbook in their most recent outing on the road against the Vikings. They covered the 1–point spread as underdogs, while the total score (44) made Sportsbooks of OVER bettors. LeGarrette Blount scored twice in Tampa Bay's most recent game, earning a 24-20 win over Minnesota at The Metrodome.
Atlanta Falcons Trends:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the division are 7-3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 4-6
A few Falcons at Buccaneers trends to consider:
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Next up:
Atlanta at Seattle, Sunday, October 2
Tampa Bay home to Indianapolis, Monday, October 3
