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Why the Broncos Win and Cover SB50

It has been a roller coaster of a year for the Denver Broncos from the dominant defense to Brock Osweiller to Peyton Manning’s potential swan song. It's hard to remember a team that ended their season 12-4 with more question marks than the Broncos.

Despite all of that, the Broncos, who are currently -6 at Bovada, are heading to Levi’s Stadium. Here's five reasons why they will not just cover, but win Super Bowl 50.

Underdogs Have Owned Super Bowl

Entering the big game with the books on your side has been the kiss of death as favorites are just 5-14-1 ATS in the past 20 Super Bowls. The underdogs have not just been cashing spread bets, but also moneyline bets as the dog is 4-0 SU and ATS in the past four Super Bowls.

The past four Super Bowls have seen the underdogs outscore the faves by a combined 46 points, thanks to the 43-8 beatdown by the Seahawks against the Broncos two years ago. None of those teams were spotted more than 4.5-points, a plateau the Broncos will almost certain close above this year.

Defense Wins Championships And Bets

In the past 10 Super Bowls, there has been five teams that ended the regular season ranked inside the top 10 in total defense. Those five teams went a combined 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in those games, with the lone failure to cover belonging to the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Broncos finished the season as the top ranked defense in yards per game, and fourth in points allowed per game. Denver also finished first in interceptions and sacks during the season.

Opposing quarterbacks have had nightmares about the Broncos defense as Denver has generated pressure on opposing signal callers on 35 percent of dropbacks, the highest percentage in the NFL this season. The ability to generate pressure without blitzing Cam Newton is important, as he has a 118.1 passer rating when blitzed, but just 68.0 when pressured without a blitz.

Denver Undefeated With Blakeman as Referee

Clete Blakeman (aka the referee who was unable to flip a coin) will be the head official for Super Bowl 50. The Broncos have gone undefeated in the past five games Blakeman has officiated with a 4-1 ATS record for bettors in that span.

Underdogs have also loved seeing that Blakeman as the referee as teams that have been spotted points are 3-1 ATS in Blakeman’s past four playoff games.

Broncos Have Been Money As Underdogs

The Broncos have only been underdogs five times this season and they have yet to hurt bettors as they are 4-0-1 ATS in that spot. Those five games had seen Denver close as an average dog of +3.5, while the team posted an average scoring margin of +6.2 points per game.

The offense of the Broncos blew up in those games as they averaged over 400 yards per game, more than 150 yards higher than their season average. In the rare instance that Denver is an underdog, they play with a chip on their shoulder.

The Devil in The White Jersey 

The Broncos are opting for the superstitious route and will wear their white uniforms for Super Bowl 50. Denver is steering clear of their orange uniforms as they are 0-4 SU with a -129 point differential in Super Bowls while wearing their orange.

The Broncos have decided to wear their white uniforms instead, in which they are a more respectable 1-1 SU in the Super Bowl. If recent history is any indication, the white jersey is the best choice for Denver, as the team wearing the white has won 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls.

Click here to see why the Carolina Panthers will win and cover at Super Bowl 50.

Extra Points
  • The Broncos are 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs.
  • Peyton Manning has thrown 40 touchdowns and 24 interceptions in 26 career playoff games.
  • This will be the first time in Peyton Manning’s career that he will be an underdog in a Super Bowl.
  • The Broncos are 3-1 SU in their last four games against the Panthers, including their last meeting in 2012.
  • This is the longest Peyton Manning has ever gone in the playoffs without throwing an interception.

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