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Free NFL Pick from Linebacker: Packers vs Patriots

Free NFL Pick Linebacker Packers Patriots

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (NE -6, O/U 56.5)

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers head to Foxborough on Sunday to square off with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Rodgers enters his second straight game as a large road underdog, with New England currently listed as a 6-point favorite. Linebacker projects the Pats will win 27.2 - 26.7, anticipating a close game between teams led by two future Hall of Famers. Linebacker suggests a wager of $129 on Green Bay +6 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Green Bay cover the spread?

  • Aaron Rodgers should slice and dice New England’s defense. Bill Belichick’s squad ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game (277.3) and their 17 passing touchdowns allowed are fourth-most in the league.
  • Rodgers won’t face much pressure. New England ranks 30th in sack rate, recording a sack on only 3.55 percent of opponent drop-backs.
  • Aaron Jones has become the starter at RB for Green Bay, giving the offense a dynamic playmaker in the backfield. Jones has averaged 6.2 yards per carry this season, while the Patriots are 19th in the NFL with 4.4 yards allowed per carry.
  • Rob Gronkowski hasn’t been his usual dominant self this season. In his past six games, Gronk has averaged just 3.67 catches and 54.1 yards per game. His only touchdown came in Week 1, and Brady has only given him two red-zone targets all season.

How to bet the total in Packers @ Patriots:

Linebacker projects a final score of 27.2 - 26.7 in favor of the Patriots. With 53.9 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 56.5, we have a small preference on the UNDER. Linebacker suggests a $34 wager on UNDER 56.5 for a $100 average bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Packers @ Patriots:

  • 24-42, 265 yards, 1.73 TDs – Aaron Rodgers might not have the most efficient day passing, as we project him to complete 57.1 percent of his attempts. The Patriots D should keep him under 300 yards, but his touchdown equity is still high. Rodgers averaged 1.73 passing TDs per game in our simulations.
  • 22-36, 279 yards, 1.61 TDs – Despite attempting fewer passes, we project Tom Brady to accumulate more yards than Rodgers on Sunday. Brady now has a full complement of talented receivers with the acquisition of Josh Gordon and the return of Julian Edelman from suspension.
  • 5 catches, 63.6 yards, 0.31 TDs – Julian Edelman projects to lead the Pats in catches and receiving yards. The veteran slot man has seen at least seven targets in all four games this season. Edelman has an outside shot at scoring, averaging only 0.31 TDs in our simulations.
  • 6 catches, 72 yards, 0.61 TDs – It’s no surprise Davante Adams is the top projected receiver for Green Bay. He’s been an absolute monster recently, recording 130-plus receiving yards in three straight games. He’ll have a tough matchup against Stephon Gilmore, so we expect his production will return to earth despite still leading the team in receiving.