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Free NFL Pick From Linebacker: Ravens vs Panthers

Ravens Panthers Linebacker Pick

Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers (CAR +2, O/U 43)

Carolina will play host to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, with the Panthers currently listed as 2-point home underdogs. Linebacker predicts Baltimore will win 70.8 percent of the time and cover the 2-point spread. Linebacker suggests a $98 wager on Baltimore -2 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Baltimore cover the spread?

  • Baltimore enters with the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense.
  • Carolina’s strength is its running game, ranking fourth in the NFL with 136.3 rush yards per game. Baltimore has been stingy against the run, surrendering just 90.1 yards per game. The Ravens held the vaunted duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 96 yards on 29 carries (3.31 ypc) in Week 7.
  • Cam Newton will have a tough time against the passing defense as well. Baltimore is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (190.4) and the lowest completion percentage of any defense (57.8%).
  • The former MVP will face a ferocious pass rush on Sunday, as the Ravens lead the NFL with 27 sacks. Newton has a QB rating of just 41.5 when pressured this season, compared to 115.2 when not pressured.
  • Joe Flacco should have success against a Panthers defense ranked 26th in opponent completion percentage and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. Flacco ranks second in the NFL with 44.1 pass attempts per game.

How to bet the total in Ravens @ Panthers:

Linebacker projects a final score of 25.3 - 19.2 in favor of the Ravens. With 44.5 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 43, we have a small preference on the OVER. Linebacker suggests a $21 wager on OVER 43 for a $100 average bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Ravens @ Panthers

  • 23-36, 244 yards, 1.45 TDs – Joe Flacco is in line for another solid game on Sunday. His projected 63.9 percent completion rate is a few ticks above his season mark of 61.7 percent, as Carolina’s D has allowed opposing QBs to complete 68.1 percent of passes this season. You can count on at least one of those passes reaching the end zone, as Flacco averaged 1.45 touchdown passes in our simulations.
  • 4 catches, 57.5 yards – John Brown should be Flacco’s main beneficiary on Sunday. Brown currently leads the NFL in air yards while Carolina’s defense has been suspect against long passing plays this season. Despite already having their bye week, they’ve allowed 26 completions of 20-plus yards, tied for seventh-most in the league.
  • 18-34, 173 yards, 1.1 TDs 8 rushes, 37.4 rushing yards, 0.41 TDs – Cam Newton should find limited success through the air, projecting to complete just 52.9 percent of his passes for under 200 yards. He’ll still be a factor on the ground, as Linebacker projects he’ll rush eight times and gain nearly 40 yards. We know Cam is always a threat to punch in a rushing TD, and he averaged 0.41 rushing TDs per game in our simulations.
  • 20 touches, 113.8 total yards – Christian McCaffrey is the main option for Cam Newton. Linebacker projects him to finish with 20 touches (15 rush, 5 rec) and over 100 yards from scrimmage. Even against a stingy Baltimore defense, McCaffrey projects for 5.7 yards per touch.

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