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Free NFL Pick From Linebacker: Texans vs Jets

Texans vs Jets Free Pick

The Houston Texans will venture to the Meadowlands after losing their nine-game win streak against the Colts last weekend. The Jets play host to Houston, as they’re coming off their fourth victory of the season in Buffalo. The Texans enter as 6.5-point favorites on the road, and the Linebacker thinks they’ll cover that spread. The Linebacker predicts a final score of 29.7 - 16.4 in favor of the Texans. We suggest a wager of $133 on HOU -6.5 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Houston cover the spread?

  • Houston’s rushing offense should tear apart New York’s porous run defense. The Texans’ 136.8 rushing yards per game ranks third in the NFL, while the Jets rank 27th in run defense, allowing 132.0 yards per game on the ground. New York has allowed 183.3 rushing yards per game over its last four, which is worst in the league.
  • Deshaun Watson and the passing game should find success as well, considering they rank sixth in the NFL with 8.2 yards per attempt. The Jets secondary has been above average this season, allowing the 12th-fewest yards per attempt at 7.2, but has fallen down to 22nd in yards per attempt allowed over the last three weeks (7.3).
  • J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of Houston’s defense should limit Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. We’ll start big picture and progress into the finer details:
    • New York ranks 30th in total offense, averaging under 300 total yards per game.
    • Houston ranks 13th in total defense, allowing 348.8 yards per game.
    • Gang Green’s 6.2 yards per passing play ranks 30th in the NFL.
    • The Jets’ 65.9 passer rating as a team ranks 31st.
    • Houston’s 92.1 passer rating allowed to opposing QBs ranks 12th.
    • Houston is T-8th with 13 interceptions on the season. Sam Darnold leads the NFL with 15 INTs despite already missing three games.

How to bet the total in Texans @ Jets:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 29.7 - 16.4 in favor of the Texans. With 46.1 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 41.5, we have a strong play on the total in this game. The Linebacker suggests a wager of $96 on OVER 41.5 for a $100 average bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Texans @ Jets:

  • Passing: 22-33, 241.8 yards, 1.61 TDs. Rushing: 5 carries, 27.21 yards, 0.36 TDs - Deshaun Watson projects to impact not only the passing game, but also have a solid contribution in the running game. The Jets have allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing QBs this season. Watson should run with some success on Saturday, and has the potential to find pay dirt on the ground, as he averaged 0.36 rushing touchdowns in our simulations.
  • 19-32, 193.9 yards, 0.95 TDs, 1.2 INTs - The afternoon shouldn’t go quite as smoothly for Sam Darnold. He projects to complete just 59.3 percent of his passes and to throw more interceptions than touchdowns. In our simulations, he averaged just 0.95 TDs per game compared to 1.2 interceptions. The third overall pick projects to finish under 200 yards passing as well, which would mark the seventh time he’s fallen below that threshold this season.
  • 15 carries, 74.8 yards, 0.58 TDs - Lamar Miller10 carries, 44.1 yards, 0.45 TDs - Alfred Blue. Both Texans backs figure to play a solid role in Saturday’s matchup with the Jets. Miller has received the lion’s share of touches this season, but Blue continues to remain a fixture, seeing 32 carries to Miller’s 45 over the last three games. Miller’s projected 4.98 yards per carry outshines Blue’s 4.41 ypc projection, and he has a slightly better chance to reach the end zone, averaging 0.58 TDs in our simulations.