Bettors would be wise to pump the brakes on all the Super Bowl OVER betting if the predictions of one major analytics and simulation site are correct on Sunday.
While many are predicting a high-scoring game with two pass-happy quarterbacks performing amazing aerial displays, PredictionMachine.com has the passing yards totals for both Tom Brady and Matt Ryan coming way UNDER the currently posted prop bets.
Super Bowl props on Tom Brady’s passing yards currently sit at 310.5 yards, according to online sportsbook Bovada, while PredictionMachine.com’s Super Bowl prop projections – the result of 50,000 game simulations – have it at just 265.1 yards.
The story is similar for Matt Ryan, whose prop total is the same and who is projected to throw for even less yardage, 262.4, according to the free NFL picks provided to OddsShark.com.
The site also anticipates the Patriots to win by an average margin of three points with an average final score of 28.3 to 25.2. That is right on the Super Bowl 51 point spread of Patriots -3, but again would see UNDER bettors rewarded with just 53.5 points scored.
Check out their analysis and see the latest Super Bowl player prop odds on our Ultimate Props Page.
1. Tom Brady Passing Yards (Line: 310.5, Projected: 265.1)
Tom Brady's passing yardage prop is too high. Simply put, Brady has only thrown for more than 310 yards six times this season. Though the Falcons have given up some points on defense, they still rank 13th in yards per pass attempt against and sixth in yards per catch. Thus, they have taken the big play away from most teams. The Falcons rushing defense is where they've struggled as they rank 28th in yards per rushing attempt. The Patriots are also likely to be leading, as they are favored in the game, which should lead to fewer passing opportunities.
2. Matt Ryan Passing Yards (Line: 310.5, Projected: 262.4)
We have a similar projection for Matt Ryan's anticipated passing yardage. Ryan has been incredible all season but the long, high-play Patriots drives should hurt his chances in going over his passing yardage total. Ryan has thrown over 310 yards in eight of 18 games this season and the Patriots only allow 237.9 passing yards per game. New England's defense also ranks eighth in passing yards per attempt and 11th in completion percentage.
3. LeGarrette Blount Rushing Yards (Line: 57.5, Projected: 65.1)
The method behind Blount's rushing yards over projection are outlined above. The Falcons passing defense and pass rush have been better than depicted. However, their rushing defense has been quite poor. Though teams tend to attack the Falcons through the air, the Patriots coaching staff seems to find the biggest weakness and exploit it. We also anticipate the Patriots to be leading more often than trailing; thus, Blount, their most reliable ball carrier, should get the workload in those situations.
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