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Free NFL Pick From Linebacker: Giants vs Panthers

Giants Panthers Linebacker Free Pick

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (CAR -7, O/U 44.5)

Eli Manning and the Giants head south to face Cam Newton’s Carolina Panthers. Ron Rivera’s club is fresh off a Week 4 bye and is currently listed as a 7-point favorite. Linebacker projects Carolina to win the game, but prefers the G-Men when it comes to covering the spread. Linebacker suggests a wager of $123 on the Giants +7 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will New York cover the spread?

  • Olivier Vernon is practicing for the Giants and is likely to make his 2018 debut on Sunday. Vernon played only 12 games in 2017, but is the returning leader for the Giants in sacks (7) and forced fumbles (2). He should help penetrate an offensive line missing both starting tackles in Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams.
  • The Giants have the receiving corps to attack a weak Carolina secondary. The Panthers are allowing 7.7 yards per reception (21st) and a 68.9 percent completion rate (24th) to opposing quarterbacks.
  • New York’s defense has stifled opposing quarterbacks. It has allowed just 58.3 percent of passes to be completed, which ranks third among NFL defenses.
  • The Panthers have been a predictable offense through three weeks. Christian McCaffrey has produced 37.4 percent of Carolina’s rushing and receiving yardage. The second-year back leads all running backs with 93 percent of his team’s snaps played, and has recorded a touch on 43.8 percent of Carolina’s plays this season. 

How to bet the total in Giants @ Panthers:

Linebacker projects a final score of 23.6-21.4, totaling exactly 45 points. With the current total listed at 44.5, Linebacker suggests a $4 play on the OVER for a $100 bettor. Barring major movement to the O/U number before Sunday, we advise not to invest too much bankroll in this game’s total.

Need-to-know stats for Giants @ Panthers:

  • 19-32, 213 yards passing – Cam Newton has posted a 67.4 percent completion rate through three weeks, a much higher number than his career mark of 58.7 percent. New York’s solid secondary mixed with Cam’s likely regression leaves him projected to complete 59.4 percent of his passes this week for a subpar 213 yards.
  • 7 receptions, 74 yards, 0.44 TDs – Odell Beckham Jr. has posted the 14th-most receiving yards among WRs (331), but joins Julio Jones and Zach Ertz as the only pass catchers (out of 48) to post 200-plus receiving yards and no touchdowns. Our projections like him to keep the yardage numbers up, and his 0.44 touchdowns per simulation gives him a solid chance to end his scoreless streak.
  • 22 touches, 119 total yards – Saquon Barkley has been featured like a No. 2 overall pick, touching the ball on 42.7 percent of snaps, good enough for fifth-most among NFL running backs. We project him to finish with 100-plus scrimmage yards for the fifth consecutive game. He’s already joined Kareem Hunt, Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Billy Sims as the only backs to post 100 scrimmage yards in the first four games of their career.