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Chiefs Flip From Favorites Over Packers to Home Dogs Following Mahomes Injury

Aaron Rodgers’ history-setting day against the Raiders improved the Packers to 5-2 ATS this season.

Matchup Information
  • Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: October 27, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: NBC
  • Opening Odds: Kansas City -3.5 | O/U 48 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

Before Patrick Mahomes’ injury, the Chiefs opened as 3.5-point home favorites, but the spread flipped following the dislocated kneecap heard ’round the world and the Packers “reopened” as 3-point road favorites.  The Chiefs ML is +165 and the point total opened at 48.

Green Bay improved to 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread as Aaron Rodgers accounted for all six touchdowns in a 42-24 win over the Raiders. The Chiefs improved to 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS with their 30-6 win over the Broncos last Thursday, but it came at a price as Mahomes will miss several weeks recovering from a dislocated kneecap.

The OVER has hit in five of the past six Packers road games when Green Bay is a favorite of 3.5 or fewer points. The Packers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. This is the first time Kansas City has been a home dog during the regular season since 2014. The Chiefs are 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 in that situation.

Green Bay News and Notes

It’s hard to believe, but Aaron Rodgers’ 25-for-31 performance for 429 passing yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions marked the first time he has finished a game with a perfect passer rating. It’s even more impressive that he achieved the feat without his top target, Davante Adams, who missed his third game due to turf toe. Adams remains questionable ahead of this weekend’s matchup.

This is a big spot for running back Aaron Jones. Since rushing for 107 yards and four touchdowns at Dallas three weeks ago, Jones has averaged 47.5 rush yards per game with no rushing scores and a fumble. He did catch one of Rodgers’ five touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs have allowed 147.7 rush yards per game over their past three. Jones needs to get going early to open up the play-action pass for Rodgers. If Jones struggles, like Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman did last Thursday (3.4 YPR), Green Bay may struggle to keep up the 30.6 points per game clip enjoyed over its past five games.

Kansas City News and Notes

So, Patrick Mahomes is out and Matt Moore is in for the Chiefs. The veteran quarterback completed 10 of 19 passes for 117 yards in relief of Mahomes last Thursday. It was Moore’s first NFL action since Week 12 of 2017. He spent last season as a high school football coach and if not for Chad Henne’s preseason ankle injury, he would have likely remained Hart High School’s football coach. That’s a lot of rust to knock off, which leads me to think LeSean McCoy is in for a heavy workload, thus leaving Moore to channel his inner Alex Smith and game-manage his heart out.

Averaging fewer than nine carries per game, McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Damien Williams has only mustered 1.7 YPR this season. Green Bay allows nearly 129 rush yards per game and allowed 155 to the Raiders last weekend. The rush-first focus is quite the overhaul from the usual Chiefs game plan, but if McCoy can dig into his old bag of tricks, it’ll take a ton of pressure off Moore.

Kansas City’s defense truly embraced the “next man up” mantra following Mahomes’ injury. The pass rush sacked Joe Flacco nine times and the secondary held him and the entire Broncos offense without a touchdown. It was a complete script flip from a team that had lost two games in a row and allowed 472 yards and 31 points to the Texans the week prior.

Betting Pick: Packers -3.5 / UNDER 48

It’s one thing to annihilate a Joe Flacco-led Broncos offense. It’s quite another to slow down Aaron Rodgers when he’s in a zone and gaining confidence. With the Chiefs defense still suspect, I think the Packers have enough to win by four.

Shark Bites
  • The Packers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games at night.
  • The Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after an ATS win.
  • The Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 October road games.