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Packers’ Perfect NFC North Record On the Line at Minnesota

Green Bay (-4.5) survived last-second laterals by the Bears to win and cover 21-13. The Packers are now 11-3 straight up and 9-5 against the spread but just 3-3 ATS over their past six.

Minnesota’s defense forced seven turnovers and smashed the Chargers 39-10. The Vikings were 1-point road favorites and with the win improved to 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS. The OVER has hit in five of Minnesota’s past six games.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Opening Odds Analysis

Minnesota opened as a 4.5-point home favorite before the consensus spread dipped to Vikings -4. The Packers moneyline opened at +170 and the point total at 46.5. The total has gone UNDER in the Packers’ last seven games against the NFC North.

The Packers won the first 2019 matchup with the Vikes 21-16 back in Week 3 and are unbeaten in four divisional games.

Green Bay is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog of 4 to 4.5 points.

Minnesota is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite of 4 to 4.5 points. The OVER is 14-6 over the Vikings’ past 20 games in that situation. They’ve also won six consecutive home games by an average margin of 13.5 points.

Here are Kirk Cousins’ and Aaron Rodgers’ all-time prime-time (after 8 p.m. ET) records:

Kirk Cousins

SU: 7-14 (33.3%) | ATS: 6-14-1 (30.0%) | O/U: 12-9 (57.1%)

Aaron Rodgers

SU: 29-24 (54.7%) | ATS: 25-26-2 (49.0%) | OU: 28-25 (52.8%)

Green Bay News & Notes

In their Week 3 win over the Vikings, the Packers defense allowed 7.0 yards per play. That’s 0.9 more yards allowed per play than the league’s worst defenses have allowed this season. So, how did they escape with the 21-16 win? Kirk Cousins tossed two interceptions and lost a fumble, as did Stefon Diggs. Green Bay turned those four turnovers into only seven points, but in a five-point victory, that touchdown mattered.

Winners of three straight and four of five, the Packers’ strength of schedule over the past 10 games is a little suspect if using it as a quality-of-team gauge. During that stretch, they’ve faced eight teams with records at or below .500. Their two other games were a 7-point win over the Matt Moore-led Chiefs and a 37-8 loss at San Francisco. Looking back, their BEST win of the season may be the 34-24 victory at Dallas. With two weeks left in the regular season, I’m still not sure which Packers squad will show up when going against an opponent on or above their level.

Minnesota News & Notes

The Vikings turned seven turnovers by the Chargers into 27 points in their 39-10 win. Minnesota’s offense was able to take a half-day.

However, the more noteworthy news coming out of that victory was the health of star running back Dalvin Cook. He left the game with a shoulder injury early in the second half and did not return, but head coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t believe it’s serious, said Cook felt good Monday and thinks he’ll be able to play through it come Week 16. Fellow running back Alex Mattison is also questionable with an ankle injury. If they can’t go, Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah would pick up the slack.

Cook accounts for nearly 60 percent of the Vikings’ rush offense this season and rushed 20 times for 154 yards in the Week 3 loss to Green Bay. Adam Thielen (hamstring), who just played for the first time since Week 9, was Minnesota’s leading receiver in that contest, posting five receptions for 75 yards. So, the Vikings’ top two contributors in their first meeting with the Packers are either hurt or working their way back to full game speed.

Cornerback Xaxier Rhodes also left Minnesota’s last game with a calf injury and is questionable, as is safety Jayron Kearse with a bad toe.

Betting Pick: UNDER 46

UPDATE: 12/21/19


The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Packers’ last 10 games vs the Vikings. With Minnesota dragging a banged-up roster to the regular-season finish line, this just seems like a 23-20 type of NFC North game. I wouldn’t dare touch this spread as the Packers’ Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde persona grows tiresome to back.

Shark Bites
  • The Packers are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • The Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
  • The Packers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games vs teams with winning records.