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Falcons Look to Close Out Georgia Dome on Winning Note in NFC Championship

Everyone and their mothers are expecting points in this NFC Championship Game – and with the total opening at 59.5, bookmakers are too. When Green Bay and Atlanta last met earlier this season, the Falcons squawked out a 33-32 win. Since then, the Packers have averaged 30.2 points per game, winning their last eight, while the Falcons have averaged 34.9 per game and won their last five. This one could really come down to which quarterback is the last one with the ball in his hands.

  • The visiting team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 matchups between these teams.
  • The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road playoff games.
  • The Falcons are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.

Yikes! Those are some pretty ugly trends for the Falcons. Even before I looked into the numbers, I was leaning toward the Packers but the trends and stats have put me firmly in Camp Cheesehead. Although I believe the Falcons can – and may – win this game, it’s tough to picture Aaron Rodgers getting blown out after seeing what he, his offensive line and his receivers have done to their last eight opponents.

When you combine all that with the fact that Rodgers has a career 118 passer rating in five career games against the Falcons, it makes things look a little grim for Dirty Bird backers. One consolation for Atlanta is that No. 12 has been awful in his two career conference championship games, going 36-64 with one touchdown, four interceptions and a passer rating of 55.6.

For Atlanta, it’s going to be all about offensive efficiency. It kind of feels like the first team to punt or turn the ball over will lose this one, so the Falcons will have to continue the trend that’s seen them named the No. 1 most efficient offense in football. With that in mind, the pressure will be squarely on Matt Ryan’s capable shoulders and after his 26-37, three-touchdown performance against the Seahawks, you can throw out all the numbers that say he chokes in the playoffs.

The total has the possibility of closing as the highest ever in the NFL but when you consider just how good both these offenses have been, it just doesn’t seem like an UNDER is in the cards. Green Bay and Atlanta are capable of scoring 40 points each and they might just do it.

This is the final game at the Georgia Dome so if the motivation of booking a trip to the Super Bowl wasn’t enough for the Falcons, maybe putting their stadium out of its misery on a winning note will be.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Green Bay Packers were listed as 5.5-point underdogs at sportsbooks such as TopBet, with the total listed at 59.5.

Odds Shark computer NFL score prediction models picked a possible 36-18 win for the Falcons on Sunday. That score may change during the week, if injury or weather factors alter the numbers, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Atlanta bring a 12-5 record (11-6 ATS) to the Conference Playoff betting matchup against the 12-6 Green Bay Packers, who are 10-7-1 ATS against the spread. Over under betting has seen Atlanta go 15-2 so far and the Packers go 12-6. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Green Bay injuries news.

The Falcons - Packers odds would favor the Falcons if the betting lines were set according to power ranks. Atlanta is rated No. 2 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Packers sit at No. 11.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Atlanta Falcons No. 1-ranked offense (33.88 PPG) against a Green Bay Packers defense that ranks No. 19 at 24 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 296.94 yards per game, more than the Packers give up through the air (271.33 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Green Bay Packers own the league's No. 7-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 96.78 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 8 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Aaron Rodgers's 356-yard performance through the air was enough last time out, as Green Bay earned a 34-31 win over Dallas on Sunday at AT&T Stadium.

In their last game, the Falcons got 3 passing scores out of Matt Ryan en route to a 36-20 win over the Seahawks on Saturday at Georgia Dome.

Betting Trends
  • Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games
  • Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
  • Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Green Bay home to , Wednesday, December 31st
Atlanta home to , Wednesday, December 31st