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Falcons are a Brutal Bet as a Favorite

Matt Ryan Falcons

A couple of up-and-down teams will get together in Atlanta on Sunday when the Falcons host the Packers. The Falcons opened as a favorite for the game which is a spot they’ve been horrible in, as they’ve gone 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. They're also just 2-8 SU during that stretch as a favorite which suggests there’s plenty of value in a Packers moneyline wager.

Shark Bites
  • Matt Ryan has thrown for 300 or more yards in four of his last five games at home.
  • The Packers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games in October.
  • The Packers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games on the road after losing their most recent road game.

After looking like one of the NFL’s top teams for a four-game stretch from Week 2 to 5, Atlanta has dropped two straight. They now have losses at home this season to both Tampa Bay and San Diego which is probably all the evidence we need that they’re more of a pretender than a contender.

The game opened with a total of 52.5 points, which is the highest mark of the week. Atlanta has gone OVER in six of their seven games this season and their leaky defense that's allowed 15 passing TDs — tied for second-worst in the NFL — should allow Aaron Rodgers to pad his stats. Rodgers is coming off his best performance of the season where he threw for 326 yards and three TDs vs the Bears.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Green Bay Packers were listed as 2.5-point underdogs at sportsbooks such as TopBet, with the total listed at 52.5.

A 33-19 result in favor of the Falcons is the prediction by the Odds Shark handicapping pick engine. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Atlanta will face the 4-2 Green Bay Packers, who own a 2-3-1 ATS mark on the season. In totals betting, the Falcons are 6-1 so far this season while the Packers are 2-4. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Green Bay injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at Odds Shark it's the No. 10-rated Atlanta Falcons and the No. 16-rated Green Bay Packers in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Atlanta's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 32.71 PPG, against a Packers defense that ranks No. 12 this week at 20.5 PPG. The Falcons aerial game is averaging 319 yards per game, more than the Packers secondary allows through the air, 241.83 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Green Bay Packers own the league's No. 1-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 39 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 23 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Aaron Rodgers dusted the Bears secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Packers defeated Chicago 26-10 at Lambeau Field.

Julio Jones hauled in 9 passes for 174 yards against the San Diego defense in the team's last game, but the result was a 33-30 loss against the Chargers on Sunday.

Betting Trends
  • Green Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
  • Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
  • Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games
  • Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Green Bay home to Indianapolis, Sunday, November 6th
Atlanta at Tampa Bay, Thursday, November 3rd