Familiar foes in the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks will renew acquaintances for Week 11’s Thursday Night Football matchup and neither team expected to be in this scenario after 10 weeks. The Packers (4-4-1 SU) and Seahawks (4-5 SU) are both fighting for their playoff lives with the Pack still searching for their first road win of the season while the Seahawks are coming off back-to-back losses.
The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites with a total of 49.
- The Seahawks are 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday Night Football games.
- The Packers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Packers’ last 9 night games.
Packers vs Seahawks Game Center
Despite Recent Losses, Seattle Loves Prime Time
Losing their last two games by a combined 13 points, the Seahawks have to be kicking themselves for how they’ve seemingly cost themselves in the closing quarters of games. In those two losses to the Chargers and Rams, the ’Hawks were either leading or in a position to take the lead going into the fourth quarter but ended up letting the game slip away against superior offenses.
Where the Seahawks may be able to get back on track is on the ground as Seattle leads the league in rushing yards per game at 152.2 but has only scored six rushing touchdowns this season (ranked 19th). While the touchdown numbers aren’t inspiring, the fact that the Packers give up over 120 yards rushing per game (rank 22nd) could be a winning formula for the Seahawks, who will try to limit Aaron Rodgers’ time on the field.
Isolating how the Seahawks have done on Thursday Night Football, it paints a nice picture for Seattle’s chances to win and cover the spread. The Seahawks are 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on TNF (dating back to December 2011) with an average win margin of 12.7 points per game.
Look at how quarterback Russell Wilson has performed on Thursdays:
- 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in 7 games
- 65.2 completion percentage
- 12 TDs to 4 interceptions
- 8.08 yards per attempt
Wilson’s track record on this stage along with the fact that Seattle is still a top-five ranked defense against the pass should make bettors feel confident in backing the Seahawks to cover the spread.
If bettors still aren't sure, the "checkmate trend" to support Seattle is its 17-2 SU and 14-3-2 ATS in their last 19 games in prime time.
Packers’ Road Woes Are Hard To Ignore
At 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in four road games this season, the Packers are a mess. To be fair, two of those losses were to the Patriots and Rams but when you lose each road game by an average of 10.5 points, there’s more to it than playing two of the top four teams in the league.
Looking through the Packers’ offensive and defensive stats this season, there’s no particular phase of the game where they stand out other than passing offense with Green Bay ranking sixth at 287.7 yards per game to go with 17 touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers’ knee may be back to full strength but considering how strong the Seahawks are against the pass, the Pack may need to consider a different strategy.
Enter Aaron Jones. The Packers running back exploded for 145 yards and two touchdowns vs the Dolphins and made up for his costly fumble vs the Patriots in Week 9. He’ll need to have another week of dominance as the Seahawks allow over 118 yards per game on the ground and it may be Green Bay’s only shot to sustain drives against a defense that is stingy against the pass.
I’m not optimistic that the Packers can cover the spread in this one but I can’t fault bettors for wanting to back Rodgers and the Pack after watching the Seahawks implode the last two weeks.
Should You Wager On The Total?
The total opened at 49 in this NFC showdown and I don’t have a strong opinion either way for what the final score would be due to the conflicting trends:
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers’ last nine games at night. Average combined score: 49
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Seahawks’ nine games this season. Average combined score: 45
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Packers’ last six games. Average combined score: 47.6
- The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games in this matchup. Average combined score: 44.2
Those trends all seem to point to an UNDER based on the average combined score. But the OVER has hit in seven of 10 TNF games this season with an average combined score of 53.3 points per game so I’m staying away with a lean to the OVER due to the volatility of Thursday games this season.
My Pick Is…
To take the Seahawks to cover the spread. I think the Seahawks are the better team and the Packers can’t seem to get out of their own way on the road as evidenced by costly fumbles vs the Rams and Patriots. The Seahawks will control the clock with their ground game and eke out a three-point win.
