49ers Survive Scare, Home Favorites Over Well-Rested Packers

For the third consecutive week, the Niners (9-1) looked sloppy. On their home turf, it took a last-minute Jeff Wilson touchdown AND a fumble recovery, scoop and score for San Francisco -10 to win and PUSH against the 3-7-1 Cardinals.

Green Bay enjoyed a well-deserved Week 11 bye. Two weeks ago, the Packers (-5) won and covered in a 24-16 victory over the Panthers to improve to 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread this season.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The 49ers opened as 3.5-point home favorites before a slight pull-back to San Francisco -3. The Packers moneyline opened at +138 and the point total at 44, but that’s jumped to 45.5 at most books we track. The total has gone OVER in the 49ers’ last four games with an average combined score of 57.5.

San Francisco is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when a home favorite of 3 or fewer points, but none of those games occurred during the 2019 season. Despite the 9-1 record, the Niners are only 2-2-1 ATS at home this season.

Green Bay is just 2-8 straight up in its last 10 road contests vs the NFC West, but the Packers have covered or pushed in four of their past six. The UNDER has hit in four of their past five in that situation.

Green Bay News & Notes

Since losing to the Eagles in the last week of September, the Packers are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. They won those five games by an average margin of 8.8 points. Remarkably, the Packers have not one notable injury ahead of this huge matchup.

Green Bay has converted 68.57 percent of its red-zone trips into touchdowns this season – the second-best rate in the NFL – and that rate has improved to 77.78 percent over its past three games. The Packers have also improved on third downs, converting 43.75 percent over their past three games, up from 37.17 percent on the season.

One area of concern that potential 49ers backers can lean on is that the Packers defense still allows 6.0 yards per play this season and 6.1 YPP over their past three games.

San Francisco News & Notes

The Niners are a prime example as to why you do NOT want a Week 4 bye. Eight weeks later, San Francisco is obviously gassed as evidenced by their three-game defensive stat splits when compared to season-to-date:

It’s one thing to struggle against the Seahawks, but two of the Niners’ last three games came against the Cardinals. The defense was dealt more bad news when defensive end Dee Ford left last Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury that is expected to cost him some time.

Offensively, Jimmy Garoppolo needs starting tight end George Kittle to return from knee and ankle injuries that have caused him to miss the past two games. Kittle, who accounts for 22 percent of San Francisco’s pass offense, is questionable against the Packers. You may remember, Kittle injured his knee early in the first Cardinals game, but later returned to finish the game. For him to miss the past two games, one wonders if his original return was worth the long-term pain.

Narrator: it was not.

Running back Matt Breida is also questionable for Sunday’s tilt as he recovers from an ankle injury and kicker Robbie Gould remained sidelined against the Cardinals with a quad injury. Chase McLaughlin connected on a 43-yard field goal and three extra points against the Cardinals last Sunday.

Betting Pick: Packers +3

Aaron Rodgers with an extra week to prepare for an exhausted 49ers defense that is showing signs of wear and tear? Yes, please. The best thing to come out of the Packers’ embarrassing loss to the Chargers is that they won’t head into this game assuming anything.