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Harry Gagnon’s Top NFL Season Props

Mike Zimmer Minnesota Vikings NFL 2019

Harry Gagnon has given us a list of his favorite props for the 2019 NFL season. 

Harry’s Top NFL Props
  • Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC +400
  • New York Giants to win the NFC East +1000
  • First head coach to be fired: Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings +1500

Kansas City Chiefs to Win the AFC +400

The Chiefs defense got a bit of a bad rap last season. Kansas City gave up a ton of yards, but it was hard not to when the offense puts up 21 in the first quarter, which is something that seemed to happen on a regular basis.

New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo brings a new twist as Kansas City will go from a 3-4 to a 4-3 aggressive front. Head coach Andy Reid should feel better about his defense this campaign even though his was a fingertip offside call away from winning the AFC last year.

On offense, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs were so prolific a season ago, leading the NFL in total yards with almost 7,000 and points per game with 35. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been cleared to play, which should alone make Kansas City come close to putting up similar numbers.

Running back Damien Williams and a cast of others will share time in the backfield, which might be better overall than having single threat Kareem Hunt (now a Cleveland Brown) in there.

Mahomes has plenty of weapons, and since Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots retired, Travis Kelce now becomes the best tight end in the AFC and possibly in the NFL. Those two hooked up on passes of 20 yards or more 18 times last year. To put that statistic into perspective, that was one more time than Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger connected with Pro Bowl receiver Antonio Brown for 20-plus.

Kansas City has the same special-teams players returning from one of the best units in the league. If the defense is even slightly better and Mahomes is what we believe he is, Kansas City could even be better than last season’s team.

Prediction: AFC Championship Game: Chiefs 38, Patriots 35
 

NFC East Division Winner: New York Giants +1000

Every NFC East team heading into the 2019 season has outlying issues. The Cowboys had the biggest problem with Zeke Elliott threatening not to play unless he got a new contract, but the Ohio State product put those concerns to rest by inking an extension with the team on September 4.

The Redskins have quarterback issues and no one has more pressure on them to succeed than Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. So with that said, why not take a flyer on the New York Football Giants.

Actually, the Giants were not as bad last year as critics made them out to be as they lost eight games by seven points or less and lost five by three points or less. The defense hung in a lot of games but will have to be much better because they just couldn’t stop teams late in games.

Two-time Super Bowl champ Eli Manning will have solid players on offense around him including Offensive Rookie of the Year Saquon Barkley, who had over 2,000 scrimmage yards.

The Giants signed veteran receiver Golden Tate (suspended for first four games) and have probably the most important piece to the offense since the offseason trade of Odell Beckham Jr. in Sterling Shepard.

This is the opportunity for Shepard to spread his wings and hopefully allow him and Manning to produce big numbers in New York. Barkley will certainly get his yards but it’s Shepard who needs to have a breakout season to allow the Giants offense to blossom.

New York has more than a few winnable games against teams that were bad last season such as Buffalo, the Jets, Detroit and Tampa Bay.

It will be interesting to see how much confidence head coach Pat Shurmur will have in Manning. He got a bad rap also last season as he still had 10 more touchdown passes than interceptions. In fact Eli’s plus/minus ratio over the past five seasons is still +63.

Eli can still get things done and the offensive line that was the main issue for them is supposed to be better. If Manning gets time to throw, the Giants could put up points and challenge late in games. This division is overrated every year and is very mediocre so at 10-1 you are getting great value on a team that isn’t as bad as touted.

Prediction
  • New York Giants 9-7
  • Dallas Cowboys 8-8
  • Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
  • Washington Redskins 5-11

First NFL Head Coach Fired: Mike Zimmer +1500

Minnesota hired Mike Zimmer and signed quarterback Kirk Cousins to win big games and that just hasn’t been the outcome for either. There is a lot of pressure on both as they are coming off an extremely disappointing 8-7-1 season.

Some losses sting a little more than others as the Vikings lost at home as a 17-point favorite to Buffalo by 21 points and when the chips were all on the table in Week 17 and a playoff berth at stake with a win, they choked at home vs rival Chicago, who was already in the playoffs and had nothing to play for. Zimmer and Cousins were a dreadful 1-6 against playoff teams.

This team is loaded with weapons as they re-signed tight end Kyle Rudolph, who is a red-zone magnet. Running back Dalvin Cook is back healthy and they still have the duo of Diggs and Thielen at wide receiver so there are no excuses for the Vikings to repeat their nightmare of a season ago.

Minnesota has tough road games in Seattle, Dallas, Kansas City and in Los Angeles vs the Chargers. The Vikings front office was not afraid to fire offensive coordinator John DeFilippo last year after only 13 games, and if the Vikings don’t get off to a good start, it could be fewer games than that for Zimmer.