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Harry Gagnon’s Words of Wisdom for NFL Week 4

Harry Gagnon's Words of Wisdom for NFL Week 4

Harry gives his analysis and prediction for all 15 games on the Week 4 NFL board.

Eagles vs Packers -4.5 | O/U 45

The Packers are extremely fortunate to be 3-0 considering they rank 28th overall in the league in total offense. Carson Wentz and the Eagles rank 14th in that category and are in search of a much-needed victory after dropping the last two games to conference foes. Green Bay is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven night games and the Eagles are 9-3 straight up in their last 12 night games.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Packers 20

Patriots vs Bills +7 | O/U 41.5

The Bills have an outstanding defense that is led by leading tackler cornerback Jordan Poyer. This game has the makings of a low-scoring affair as the Patriots defense has yet to yield an offensive touchdown this season. Since halftime of Week 1, Bills QB Josh Allen has been almost perfect in leading this team to a 3-0 record. Buffalo is the place to be this weekend as these two rivals face off with first place at stake in the AFC East. The Pats gave games away last year so would it be so shocking if they gave this game away? Well, I know it would, but I can feel an upset in the crisp Buffalo air.

Prediction: Bills 20, Pats 17

Redskins vs Giants -3 | O/U 49

The Redskins are coming off a pathetic performance on Monday night and now travel to New York for their third division game in four weeks. Daniel Jones was amazing vs Tampa Bay in his debut, being only the second QB to ever pass for two touchdowns and run for two touchdowns in his career opener. The Giants will be without Saquon Barkley for four to eight weeks so it will be interesting to see how the offense does with running back Wayne Gallman in the backfield. The Redskins can’t play any worse than they did this past week. They keep this game close.

Prediction: Giants 21, Redskins 20

Browns vs Ravens -7 | O/U 46

The Ravens went toe to toe with the Chiefs on the road and were able to cover as an underdog, something the Browns were not able to do Sunday night vs the Rams. The Browns were able to run the ball productively with Nick Chubb and need to do that this week and keep Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson off the field as much as possible. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss. The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs division opponents in Baltimore.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 17

Buccaneers vs Rams -10 | O/U 49.5

The Rams are 3-0 but their offense still doesn’t look like last year’s at all. Todd Gurley doesn’t look like the best runner in the league from a year ago and the Bucs run defense will show that. The Rams will grind out another defensive game and will score enough to win but the Bucs and Jameis Winston will cover the spread. Winston last week finally looked solid and hooked up with WR Mike Evans on three first-half touchdowns. The Rams have gone UNDER in five of their last seven vs Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has gone UNDER in seven of its last nine games.

Prediction: Rams 24, Buccaneers 16

Chargers vs Dolphins +16 | O/U 44

This game is a stay-away for me considering the Chargers are giving 16 points and easily could be 0-3. Chargers Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen have put up big numbers but Miami played decent in Dallas last week and maybe this game is controlled by the Chargers but they don’t show a lot in a low-scoring affair. The UNDER has been the winner 14 of the last 15 times these two foes have faced off. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits to South Beach.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Dolphins 12

Chiefs vs Lions +6.5 | O/U 54

The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes probably should have covered last week to the Ravens but as we all know they didn’t, so the public will more than likely pound them this week despite playing 2-0-1 Detroit. The point spread does look low, but this looks like a different Lions team than we traditionally see and that’s because they actually have a defense. I’m not saying they will win the game, but they will bend but not break and get the cover. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in September.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Lions 27

Jaguars vs Broncos -3.5 | O/U 39

The Jags got their first win of the season on Thursday night vs the troubled Titans. Meanwhile, Denver had better stats against the Packers in Green Bay but turnovers did them in and they are still winless on the season. This is a spot where Denver should be able to establish a solid running attack under Phillip Lindsay (two TDs vs Packers). The Broncos are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 games at home in September and the Jaguars are 1-7 straight up in their last eight games on the road.

Prediction: Broncos 27, Jaguars 16

Panthers vs Texans -4 | O/U 47.5

Will the real Houston Texans please stand up? It seems we never know what offense we are going to get with this team. The Panthers offense, on the other hand, was just fine last week in Arizona. Kyle Allen, a native of Scottsdale, Arizona, was brilliant with four touchdowns and might be a better fit for the Panthers than Cam Newton is and it just seems the Texans let bettors down when they are a favorite at home. I’m riding this Panther train with the points and the moneyline this week in a close one.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Texans 26

Raiders vs Colts -7 | O/U 44.5

After an opening-game victory against the Broncos, the Raiders have lost two straight games by an average of 19 points. Indy looks good but is dealing with a banged-up Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton. Oakland head coach Jon Gruden needs to rally this team and get back on the winning side. The Raiders will make this close before heading to London to play the Bears next week.

Prediction: Colts 22, Raiders 17

Vikings vs Bears -2.5 | O/U 47

This should be some battle in Chicago between two bitter rivals. Running back Dalvin Cook just might be the difference as he has outrushed the entire Bears team himself through three games. Cook has 375 yards on the ground for a whopping average of 6.6 yards per carry and four touchdowns and the Bears as a unit have 289 yards.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 20

Titans vs Falcons -4 | O/U 46

Both teams are struggling three weeks into the season. Tennessee was not even in the game last Thursday at Jacksonville, and the Falcons had 16 penalties in their loss at Indianapolis. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had seven interceptions last season but has six already this year. Atlanta has been outscored 41-3 in the first half in road games combined but this game is in Atlanta and the Falcons will figure out how to get Calvin Ridley involved in the passing attack and pull this game out and cover.

Prediction: Falcons 28, Titans 20

Seahawks vs Cardinals +5 | O/U 48

The Arizona Cardinals have numerous holes on both sides of the ball. Running back David Johnson isn’t getting things done and he only has 137 rushing yards total through three games and the Arizona defense has yielded five touchdowns to tight ends. Meanwhile, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has been dynamite with nine total touchdowns and three of them going to tight end Will Dissly. Both teams are struggling heading into this game but taking Wilson is a no-brainer over rookie quarterback Kyler Murray.

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 24

Cowboys vs Saints +2.5 | O/U 47

Is this the prime-time matchup where we finally see a high-scoring back-and-forth affair? The Cowboys and Saints in six combined games have scored 30 or more in five of them, so let’s hope for fireworks in the Big Easy on Sunday Night Football. Dallas has the third-ranked offense in the league and they really seem to be clicking on all cylinders. The Saints were on Monday Night Football to start the season and combined with the Texans to put up 58 so the OVER in this game will be difficult to pass up even though the record for OVERs in prime-time games is only 2-7 so far through nine games.

Prediction: Saints 37, Cowboys 34

Bengals vs Steelers -4 | O/U 43.5

The Steelers are really having a hard time manufacturing anything productive as they fell to 0-3 in San Francisco on Sunday. Cincinnati is a solid 2-0 ATS on the road this season and in Week 1 gave up only 156 total yards to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Bengals also came back nicely as they trailed the Bills by 14 but rallied to cover as they lost by four while getting 6 points. It’s a tough spot to try to make a case for the Steelers in this game and to lay more than a field goal.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 21

Well, I’m hoping this week is a “dog day afternoon” — and evening, for that matter — as I went with 12 underdogs out of 15 to cover the spread in Week 4.