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Harry’s Alleged Locks: NFL Week 15

Harry’s Alleged Locks: NFL Week 15

To recap last week’s Alleged Locks, there were more winners that you could count on. On Thursday night, Moneyline Maybe Chicago came in with flying colors against the Cowboys as Bears QB Mitch Trubisky continued his recent solid play, accounting for four scores in beating Dallas at Soldier Field. My Parlay Possibility had a PUSH with the Bengals +8, and a win with the Dolphins +6 vs the Jets. A predicted (17-16) one-point victory for the Jets came to fruition as New York got past Miami 22-21 on a last-second field goal. However, my “take it to the bank” Best Bet of the week was the Chargers -3 against the hapless Jaguars. This game was over by halftime as the Chargers never took their foot off the gas and went on to roll Jacksonville 45-10. This week has many more juicy plays that will make your bankroll grow just in time for Christmas shopping.

Moneyline Maybes

Lions +170

Despite losing the last two weeks with third-string quarterback David Blough, the Detroit Lions are putting up a fight. They took a lead to the end of the game against the Bears on Thanksgiving and held the Vikings to just 20 points in Minnesota. Detroit has been effective running the ball the past two weeks and Blough does have three passing touchdowns. On defense, the Lions limited Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook to just 62 yards rushing and didn’t allow a Minnesota receiver to go over 100 yards. Detroit plays Tampa Bay this week at home and I give the Lions a shot against the Bucs and Jameis Winston, who leads the league in turnovers with 28. Blough isn’t afraid to try to move his team down the field and should be able to continue his chemistry with WR Kenny Golladay (TDs in both games Blough has started) against Tampa’s 31st-ranked pass defense. Tampa Bay is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs Detroit and 2-12 straight up in its last 14 on the road in December. The Buccaneers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as a road underdog and have not won three games in a row since the 2016-17 season. The Lions get a win for the fans of Detroit who have had to suffer through another difficult season.

Prediction: Lions 22, Buccaneers 20

7-Point, Two-Team Teaser

+4 Titans, +17 Bengals

I think it’s fair to say that week after week we never know what Texans team is going to show up. On Sunday they laid an egg at home, getting blown out against the Broncos, and a month ago in Baltimore they were pummeled by 34 points. But sandwiched between those games, they won prime-time contests at home, toppling the Colts and looking great while rolling Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. One thing we do know is that the Titans and QB Ryan Tannehill have been on fire and are coming off a 42-point performance in Oakland. This game is for first place in the AFC South so I’ll bite not knowing what Texans team will show. I’m all over this game on a teaser so in case Houston decides to show and win by a field goal, I’ll also win with the Titans at +4. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December and 8-2 straight up and ATS in their last 10 at home vs the AFC South.

Prediction: Titans 27, Texans 24

This Patriots team is in disarray, especially on offense. New England is having difficulty running the ball and receivers continue to drop key passes from Tom Brady. The Patriots are actually just 1-5 ATS in their last six games in December. The Bengals have been playing their best football of the season over the last four games. They PUSHed in their game on Sunday against the Browns but covered the previous three weeks. Prior to the Browns game, the Bengals defense had given up just 39 points combined in those three contests. Cincinnati looks like a much different team since the return of quarterback Andy Dalton. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a double-digit underdog and with the Pats’ issues, I’ll take 17 at home.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Bengals 14

Parlay Possibilities

Dolphins +3.5, Eagles-Redskins UNDER 40.5

The Dolphins are 2-1 ATS against the NFC East this year and that includes beating the Eagles straight up 37-31 two weeks ago. Head coach Brian Flores has this team playing tough ball and if not for a terrible pass interference call against them this past week against the Jets, they would have won that game straight up as well. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has had this team looking decent on offense and should be able to move the ball against the poor Giants defense.

Prediction: Dolphins 17, Giants 16

The UNDER 40.5 is the play in this NFC East battle between the Eagles and Redskins. Washington has been playing much better defensively of late but on the offensive side the Redskins sit last in the league in passing yards and total yards. They have scored 19 points or less in 10 games this season. Second-year running back Derrius Guice had been looking pretty good the previous couple of weeks but he suffered a season-ending injury Sunday in Green Bay and now the full workload will be put on aging Adrian Peterson. The Eagles have not been lighting up the scoreboard lately either while dealing with numerous injuries to their offense and QB Carson Wentz is completing under 65 percent of his passes. The Eagles should force Washington into plenty of third-and-longs with their third-best run defense.

Prediction: Eagles 20, Redskins 13

Best Bet

Vikings-Chargers OVER 45.5

The Chargers are coming off their best offensive effort of the year. They put up 45 points against Jacksonville and running back Austin Ekeler had over 200 combined yards. Running back Melvin Gordon had a touchdown and for the fifth straight game eclipsed 80 combined yards. After this outbreak, Los Angeles is now fifth in passing and ninth in overall offense in the league. Four of Minnesota’s last five games have gone OVER and in their last four road games the combined scores have been 72, 49, 52 and 67. Tight end Kyle Rudolph leads the Vikings in touchdown receptions and QB Kirk Cousins is up to 24 passing scores. This Vikings offense is 10th in the league in yards per game and fourth in rushing yards. Both teams are capable of going up and down the field and that’s what I like the best this week.

Prediction: Vikings 38, Chargers 35

7-Point, Two-Team Sunday/Monday Night Teaser

Bills-Steelers UNDER 44.5, Colts-Saints OVER 38.5

The Bills struggled offensively on Sunday against the Ravens, especially passing the ball. QB Josh Allen completed just 43 percent of his passes and it won’t get any easier against the Steelers defense. Seven of Pittsburgh’s last eight games have failed to go OVER 44 points. The Bills defense ranks third in the NFL in yards against per game and the Steelers are fifth. Plus, the weather for Sunday night in Pittsburgh looks like low 30s and snow.

Prediction: Bills 19, Steelers 17

This Colts team has been hit hard by injuries and it has shown on defense, especially in the last two weeks. Indy gave up 31 points in a loss to the Titans and last week surrendered 38 to Tampa as Jameis Winston torched the Colts for 456 yards and four TDs. The Saints offense looks to be back as they put up 46 against San Francisco and Drew Brees had six total touchdowns. New Orleans should be able to pass all over the depleted Colts at home in the dome.

Prediction: Saints 31, Colts 20