Houston, We Have A Problem!

The Houston Texans (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) have lost five consecutive games, have just one win in their last 11 starts and don’t appear to be on the verge of winning any time soon. The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, have yet to lose a football game this year and have wins against the 49ers, Rams and Browns in the last three weeks. The Texans appear to be a free space on a bingo card for the high-flying Cardinals in Week 7.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The early look-ahead line had this game at -14.5 for the Cardinals and the number jumped up to 17 after the Texans were embarrassed 31-3 by the Colts. The total opened at 49.5 and is now down to 47.

Houston News & Notes

The Texans did a terrible job stopping the Indianapolis run game. Houston did pressure Carson Wentz 12 times and sacked him twice, but the Colts were able to average 6.7 yards per rushing attempt and gained 174 yards running the ball.

Offensively, Davis Mills continued to struggle as Tyrod Taylor’s replacement. Mills was 29 of 43 for 243 yards, but had zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Houston has been held under 10 points in three of its last four games.

If there was a bright spot for the offense, it was Brandin Cooks hauling in nine receptions for 89 yards. With the rookie Mills as his QB, Cooks’ DFS value has dropped significantly. Before the Indy game, Cooks had combined for 70 yards receiving in his previous two games.

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Arizona News & Notes

The Cardinals are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL, but are only 3-3 ATS. Over their last 11 home games, they are 3-8 ATS.

This year, the Cardinals are 2-0 playing at home, but survived to win in Week 2 only when the Vikings missed a 36-yard field goal as time expired. The Vikings easily covered that game and should have won outright.

Kyler Murray started the year at +1800 to win the NFL MVP award and was as high as +2075 but has jumped all the way to +500 in the MVP odds, trailing only Josh Allen. Murray hasn’t thrown for more than 270 yards in the Cardinals’ last three victories, but leading your team to wins over Cleveland, San Francisco and the Rams is an impressive three-week stretch.

How Houston Will Cover

In a league known for its parity, 17-point spreads are not that common, and any team can win on any given Sunday. We learned this last year when the New York Jets beat the L.A. Rams outright as 17.5-point underdogs. Very few people believe the Texans have a chance to win this game, but a cover, especially a late backdoor cover when the Cardinals are resting starters, seems very doable. If the Texans defense can contain the Cardinals, there should be a chance for Houston to keep this game within 17 points.

How Arizona Will Cover

Davis Mills will once again be tasked with leading the Houston offense, this time on the road. In his last two road starts, Mills has put up a total of three points. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray just keeps doing things each week to stay near the top of the MVP betting race. Murray has put up 51 points in his two starts at home. If the Arizona defense shuts down Mills as expected, Murray and the offense should have no problem covering the 17 points.

Computer Pick: Cardinals -17

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