Andre Roberts

Soggy Saturday: Rain Expected When Jets Host Texans

Houston’s first loss since September 23 was pretty ugly as the Indianapolis defense locked down the Texans’ potent rush attack and harassed Deshaun Watson for 60 minutes. The 24-21 loss dropped Houston to 9-4 overall and 6-7 against the spread. The UNDER has hit in back-to-back Texans games.

On the flip side, the Jets snapped a six-game slide after they outscored the Bills 14-3 in the fourth quarter. New York improved to 4-9 overall and 5-8 against the spread. The OVER has hit in three of the Jets’ past four games, but it’s worth noting the average point total in those games was 40.5.

Houston opened as a 6.5-point road favorite for Saturday afternoon’s tilt, while the Jets moneyline opened at +255. The point total opened at 41.5, grew to 42.5 Sunday night, but reverted to 41.5 by Monday morning. The Texans are 3-3 against the spread on the road this season, while New York is 2-4 ATS at home and has failed to cover the past three.

SHARK BITES
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Jets’ last five games at home (avg. combined score: 54.2).
  • The Jets are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Texans’ last seven games on the road (avg. combined score: 42.43).

Texans vs Jets Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 14

Texans – We learned that without a steady rush attack, the Texans are beatable. Heading into their game with Indianapolis, Houston had averaged 200-plus rushing yards per game over its previous three games. The Colts held Lamar Miller and company to 89 yards on just 3.6 yards per rush.

With no offensive balance and the Texans facing down and distance, Indianapolis brought the rush and sacked Deshaun Watson five times with seven QB hits in all.

Andrew Luck carved up the Texans secondary for 399 yards. That unit has allowed 347.7 pass yards per game over the past three contests.

Jets – Gang Green’s defense sacked Josh Allen three times, picked up 10 QB hits and forced three Buffalo turnovers. To replicate that this week will be a challenge as Houston ranks fourth in turnover margin at +9. However, the Texans offensive line has allowed the second-most sacks this season, 46 in 13 games.

Running back Isaiah Crowell left the game with a foot injury and his Week 15 status is questionable. Second-string back Elijah McGuire rushed 17 times for 60 yards.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: SACK LUNCH HUNCH

Indianapolis’ defense ranked outside the top 15 in sacks before taking Deshaun Watson down five times last Sunday. The New York pass rush isn’t great either, but Houston’s offensive line needs to do a better job protecting the quarterback. Since 2015, teams that have allowed five or more sacks in a game are 41-155-10 against the spread. Protect the quarterback, protect the SU, ATS win.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY FORECAST

Unseasonably mild for mid-December with temperatures around 50 degrees and 80 percent chance of rain showers. Winds will be 10-15 miles per hour.

Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn did not attempt a field goal in the Texans’ loss to the Colts and remains 29-for-34 on field-goal attempts and 32 of 33 on extra-point tries. New York’s MVP, Jason Myers, made both field goals and all three extra points in the Jets’ win over Buffalo to improve to 30 of 32 and 24 of 25, respectively.

MY LEAN

This will be Houston’s first road game in four weeks. Considering the Texans play home games in a climate-controled stadium and now have to compete in what is forecasted to be wet and soggy conditions, I’m not overly eager to push all my -6.5 chips to the center of the table. With the total at 41.5, the UNDER may be the best angle.

With that said, the best way for New York to win and/or cover against the Texans is via the pass and the weather conditions don’t appear to be favorable. On the contrary, the way Houston wins is by focusing on its rush attack and it just so happens that New York has allowed 173.7 rush yards per game over the past three weeks. This is a perfect opportunity for Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue to bounce back.

My lean is the Texans cover -6.5 and more so the UNDER if the weather forecast remains the same.

The total has gone OVER in four of the Jets’ last five games at home (avg. combined score: 54.2).home The Jets are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.home The total has gone UNDER in five of the Texans’ last seven games on the road (avg. combined score: 42.43).away
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