After suffering three straight losses to start the season, the Houston Texans head into Indiana in search of a badly needed win when they renew acquaintances with the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. Sportsbooks opened the Texans as 1.5-point road underdogs with a total of 47.
- The Texans are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs the Colts.
- The Texans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Texans’ last five games (avg. combined score: 41.6).
Texans have had major issues in Indianapolis
While the Colts have yet to win this season at Lucas Oil Stadium, their past dominance over Houston at home is well documented. Indy is 14-2 SU in its past 16 home contests against the Texans. The Colts failed to get the job done on the road last week in a 20-16 setback to the Philadelphia Eagles, with starting quarterback Andrew Luck going 25-for-40 for just 164 passing yards and a touchdown.
With two of their first three games of the season going UNDER, the Colts are looking like a solid bet to keep going below totals. Dating back to last year, the UNDER is 10-1 in the Colts’ past 11 games, with an average combined score of 37 points in those games. The UNDER has also paid out in four of the Texans’ last five games, with an average combined score of 41 points.
Is the season already over for Houston?
As Joe Osborne documented here, the Texans’ odds of making the playoffs are looking extremely slim already. Houston suffered a 27-22 loss to the New York Giants in its first home game of the season last week, but quarterback Deshaun Watson looked much better in a 385-yard passing performance with two touchdowns and an interception. The Texans offensive line has done a poor job protecting him, as Watson absorbed three sacks in the contest.
Bettors will likely be fading the Texans for the foreseeable future, and for good reason. After failing to cover through three weeks, Houston is now 0-8 ATS in its past eight games overall dating back to the 2017 campaign. The Texans are also a brutal 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five against divisional opponents. Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are a dynamic trio, but this team has bigger overall problems that need to be solved before things come together.
Why I’m taking the UNDER in this one
I was tempted to take the Colts as home faves due to the Texans’ inability to cover, but this game looks like a stay-away for me spread-wise as I think it could go either way. Instead, I’m betting the UNDER, as I think the Sportsbook 47 number is a little too high. The Colts defense is improved, which has given the unit a much different look, so expect their UNDER trend to continue for the time being.
