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Well-Rested Patriots Set For Banner Day vs Osweiler-Led Texans

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have long been the favorites to win the Super Bowl and by most metrics were the best team in football this year. The Houston Texans, on the other hand, stumbled their way into the playoffs and were the beneficiaries of a Derek Carr-less Raiders team in the first round. A win for the Texans in this spot would be by far the biggest in the history of their franchise, but based on the 27-0 clobbering they suffered to the Jacoby Brissett-led Pats back in Week 3, this may be a fight far outside Houston’s weight class.

  • The Patriots are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games in the playoffs as home favorites.
  • The Texans are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Patriots.
  • The Texans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Since Tom Brady’s Week 5 return, the Patriots have lost just one game and posted a 10-2 ATS record. Speaking of No. 12, Brady has been playing arguably the best football of his career this year and still has some unfinished business in the playoffs. The 17-year veteran came back with a vengeance after his suspension and put up video game-like numbers with a 28:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while posting the best passer rating in the NFL.

Opening as the 16-point favorites over Brock Osweiler’s Texans, the Pats will have to put forth a near flawless offensive performance to cover the spread and for the most part of the 2016 season, they were up to the task. In the 11 games they’ve won since and including Week 5, New England has a winning margin of 14.83 points. That number, of course, would not cover the spread this game opened with but when you consider that the Pats have been a double-digit favorite four times this year and that they’ve covered every time – the worry subsides pretty quickly.

The only thing the Houston Texans have really done effectively this year is defend against the pass. New England has done just about everything effectively this year and is rated as the No. 1 most efficient team in the NFL – Houston is 28th.

In the Patriots’ only loss this season with handsome Tom at the helm, Russell Wilson of the Seahawks had one of his best games of the season, going 25-37 with 348 yards and three touchdowns. Osweiler failed to breach the century mark in passer rating in a game all season and at his best has looked like a below-average NFL quarterback. With one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, this Texans team does not have enough weapons to keep pace with the Patriots and could be quickly buried on Saturday.  

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Those siding with the visitors in this matchup saw the Houston Texans listed as 15.5-point underdogs at shops such as Bovada. Meanwhile, the over under line for the betting matchup was at 46 over at 5Dimes.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas picked a 30-10 win for the Patriots. Injuries during the week may cause the formula to be re-run, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The New England Patriots sport a record of 14-2 and 13-3 ATS heading into this betting matchup, while the Houston Texans sit at 10-7 and 7-9-1 ATS on the season. The over under totals records are 6-9-1 for the Patriots and 7-10 for the Texans. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Houston injuries news.

The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the New England Patriots rated this week at No. 1 and the Houston Texans sitting at No. 25.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 27.56 PPG, against a Texans defense that ranks No. 11 this week at 20.12 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 269.38 yards per game, more than the Texans secondary allows through the air, 197.94 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Houston Texans own the league's No. 12-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 109.75 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 12 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Texans grabbed a Wild-Card Playoff victory over the Raiders in their last game, winning 27-14 at NRG Stadium.

In their last game, the Patriots got 3 passing scores out of Tom Brady en route to a 35-14 win over the Dolphins on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
  • Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games
  • New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Houston home to , Wednesday, December 31st
New England home to , Wednesday, December 31st