With a 24-21 loss at Buffalo, Jacksonville has now lost seven consecutive games and is 0-5-2 against the spread during that stretch. The Jaguars are 3-8 overall and 3-6-2 against the spread this season.
In a sloppy game where the Colts turned the ball over three times and Andrew Luck was sacked for the first time since Week 5, Indianapolis squeaked out a straight-up win over the Miami Dolphins 27-24. The Colts’ fifth straight win improves their overall record to 6-5 straight up and they are 3-1-1 against the spread during the streak.
The Colts opened as 2.5-point road favorites before the line moved to Indianapolis -3.5. The Jaguars moneyline is +138 and the point total opened at 48.5 before a slight dip to 48. It’s only the second time since 2014 that Indy has been favored by 3.5 or more points on the road. They beat and covered 3.5 at Oakland earlier this year. Jacksonville has been a home dog of 3.5 or more points only one other time over the past two seasons and that was just two weeks ago when it was +4 to the Steelers and pushed 20-16.
- The Jaguars are 0-7 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games (avg. losing margin: 11.14).
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Colts’ last 14 games in the early afternoon.
- The Colts are 5-0 SU in their last five games (avg. winning margin: 16.0).
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 12
Colts – Andrew Luck joined Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks to throw three or more touchdowns in eight consecutive games. Even after tossing two picks Sunday, Luck’s TD-to-INT ratio is 32:11 this season.
Marlon Mack entered the league’s concussion protocol in the fourth quarter and his Week 13 status is questionable. He’s averaged 86.6 rush yards during the Colts’ five-game win streak.
Tight end Jack Doyle is out for the season with a kidney injury.
Jaguars – Jacksonville fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett a day after the loss to the Bills, and Blake Bortles has been benched in favor of Cody Kessler, who was 0-8 in games started as a member of the Browns. The offense ranks in the bottom seven in terms of yards per play and the Jaguars have averaged just 15.5 points per game during their seven-game skid.
Leonard Fournette was ejected for throwing punches in the Jaguars’ loss to the Bills and is now suspended for this week’s game. He has until Thursday to appeal the suspension. The second-year running back is averaging 119 total yards per game with five touchdowns over his past three games.
The Jaguars lost another offensive lineman as Andrew Norwell is out a few weeks with a sprained ankle.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: NO ACTION, JACKSON
As Jacksonville looks to avoid its eighth consecutive loss, it’s worth noting that since 2016, teams that have lost seven or more consecutive games are 5-27 straight up and 9-22-1 against the spread in their next game. Since 2013, teams in that spot are 12-44 SU and 21-34-1 ATS. It’s not a great trend for the reeling Jaguars.
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA FORECAST
Cloudy with temperatures in the high 70s, 80 percent humidity and 40 percent chance of showers, likely in the morning with the sun poking its head out later in the day. Winds will be 10-15 miles per hour. For a Colts team that’s played in a climate-controlled stadium the past three games, these muggy conditions could play a factor in the second half.
Jacksonville’s Josh Lambo missed his second field goal in the past three games, but did connect on all three extra points. He’s 17-for-19 on field goals and 18-for-19 on extra points this season. Veteran Adam Vinatieri has also missed two field goals over his past three games and is 17 of 21 on field goals and 32 of 34 on extra points. His last missed kick at Jacksonville came in 2008.
MY LEAN
It’s a classic case of two teams trending in opposite directions. However, two things make me nervous about taking the Colts as of Monday. First, I’m concerned about Mack’s unknown status as he’s been an integral part of the Colts offense despite Luck’s consistent passing prowess. Second, this is Indy’s first road trip in a month. While the Jaguars appear defeated, I would go out of my way to buy at least the half-point and avoid any type of late fourth-quarter backdoor heartbreak.
I’ll take the Colts -3 if Mack clears concussion protocol. If Fournette’s suspended, etc., I’ll take Indy to cover the 3.5 with or without Mack.
