Colts vs Cowboys Picks & Odds: Dallas Strengthening Home Fave vs Fading Indy

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) aim to extend their home win streak to six games when they host the Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1, 5-7) in the NFL Week 13 edition of Sunday Night Football.

The Cowboys cemented their grasp on second place in the NFC East with a 28-20 win over the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day, but fell short of covering as 10-point chalk. The Colts travel to Dallas clinging to rapidly fading playoff hopes after dropping a 24-17 decision to the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers that marked their fifth defeat in six outings.

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Colts vs Cowboys Sportsbook Odds

The Cowboys have improved to 11-point favorites since Sportsbook at -9.5, while the total has faded to 43.5 since Sportsbook at 45.5.

Sunday night’s matchup marks the first meeting between these teams since 2018 and the Colts’ first visit to Big D in eight years. The Colts romped to a 23-0 win when the Cowboys visited Indy in December 2018, ending a three-game slide in head-to-head action in which they surrendered 33.7 points per game. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys also sport a 3-1 ATS record over their past four dates with the Colts, with the total going UNDER in four of their past five meetings.

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Ryan’s Return Fails to Spark Indy Attack

The Colts’ season-long scoring woes continued with last weekend’s loss to the Steelers. The Colts have now scored 17 or fewer points in each of the losses during their current 1-5 run and have mustered more than 20 points just twice during their 4-7-1 start to the season.

The return of veteran Matt Ryan under center has failed to spark the Colts’ feeble attack. His 199-yard passing performance last week marks the second time the once-prolific pivot has failed to reach 200 yards so far this season. Overall, Ryan has maintained his trademark accuracy, completing 70.2 percent of pass attempts in three games since his return to the No. 1 role. However, he has connected on just one scoring pass during the team’s current 0-2 run and has thrown two TD passes against seven picks over his past four road outings.

Those woes have contributed to the Colts’ struggles to score early, with the team getting shut out in the Sportsbook frame four times over its past six outings. On a positive note, Jonathan Taylor has been steady in the backfield, averaging 105.7 rushing yards over the past three games and scoring three times.

Cowboys Plagued by Slow Starts

For the fourth time in six games, the Cowboys were faced with the challenge of overcoming an early deficit last weekend, and passed the test with flying colors in a crucial Thanksgiving Day clash with the archrival New York Giants. Deadlocked with New York in the NFC East standings heading into Week 12, the Cowboys spotted the Giants a 13-7 halftime lead before storming back with 21 unanswered points to seal the victory.

That marked just the second time that the Cowboys managed to erase the early deficit during their current 4-2 run, raising concerns about the team’s tendency to stumble out of the gate. Overall, Dallas has scored three or fewer points in the first quarter seven times during its 8-3 start. And while the Cowboys have made up for it by averaging 16.3 points after recess over their past six games, it remains a habit they must break.

Dak Prescott has shown no ill effects from the injury that sidelined him early in the campaign. The Cowboys pivot has lit up opposing defenses with nine TD passes and one scoring run over the past four games. But he has also tossed three picks over his past two home appearances.

Colts: Keys to Win

Ranked 30th in the NFL with just 15.8 points per game, the Colts must find a way to kick-start their offense early on if they are to keep pace with the Cowboys. Considering how dominant Dallas has been defending the pass, limiting opposing pivots to a league-low 177.7 passing yards per game while recording a league-high 45 sacks, the Colts must diversify their attack. That means another leading role for Jonathan Taylor as Indy puts focus on the ground attack.

Cowboys: Keys to Win

Not waiting until the second half to bring urgency to their offensive game could be transformative for this team. In the meantime, the Cowboys can improve their record on the strength of another stingy defensive performance that will involve constantly hurrying Matt Ryan and seizing on the Colts’ inevitable mistakes.

NFL Computer Pick: Cowboys -11

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