Rested Colts Road Favorites Over Surging Lions

Something’s got to give when Indianapolis (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) returns from its bye to visit the Lions (3-3, 3-3). Indy has lost seven of its last eight road games, but the Lions haven’t won at Ford Field in over a year. The Colts opened as 1.5-point road favorites.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Significant early action on the Colts drove this number up as high as 3 at some sportsbooks as of Monday afternoon. Detroit has been an underdog in 12 of its last 14 home games, going 5-9 ATS during that span.

Indianapolis News & Notes

The Colts defense ranks second in the NFL in average yards allowed, third against the run and fourth in points allowed, but those stats may be misleading. Indianapolis compiled those numbers against the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, Bears, Browns and Bengals – teams that were a combined 12-23-1 through the first six weeks of the season.

Indy’s defense has also been much more vulnerable in its past two games, allowing a combined 58 points to Cleveland and Cincinnati. That stretch coincided with the absence of Pro Bowl linebacker Darius Leonard, who has been battling a groin injury. With Indianapolis coming off a bye, it’s a possibility that Leonard may return to action this week, although his status remained uncertain as of Monday.

The Colts also need to figure out a way to start generating more offense on the road, where they are 1-2 SU and ATS this year and 1-7 SU in their last eight dating back to last season. Indianapolis has scored 24 points or less in 12 of its last 13 games away from Lucas Oil Stadium.

Detroit News & Notes

Don’t look now, but the Lions are on a winning streak. Sunday’s miraculous 23-22 win in Atlanta, when Detroit drove 75 yards in the final minute with no timeouts for the go-ahead touchdown, marked the first time the Lions have won consecutive games since the team’s 2-0-1 start last year.

Both of those victories came on the road, however. The Lions haven’t won at Ford Field in more than a calendar year and are a woeful 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in Detroit. In the Lions’ two home losses this season, they blew a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead against Chicago and let an early 14-0 advantage slip away against the Saints.

Wide receiver Kenny Golladay has keyed the Lions’ recent resurgence, eclipsing the 100-yard plateau in each of his last two outings. If you’re looking for a consistent fantasy performer, it’s hard to go wrong with the six-year pro, who has either gained 100 yards or caught a touchdown pass in each of his four starts this year.

Betting Pick: Colts -2.5

Indianapolis is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a bye week, and I think the extra time off helps a defense that has slipped a bit lately – particularly if Leonard is able to return to the lineup.