Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Considering the Colts defense struggled to stop the Raiders, it’s no surprise they’re double-digit dogs at Kansas City.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as 8.5-point home favorites, but the line has jumped to Kansas City -10 after the Colts’ sloppy home loss to Oakland. Indianapolis’ moneyline opened at +345, the second-biggest ML of Week 5, and the point total opened at 54 before a jump to 57 as it appears defense may be optional Sunday night.

Kansas City is 4-0 SU but fell to 3-1 ATS after failing to cover -7 in a 34-30 dogfight at Detroit. The Colts are 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS after an embarrassing 31-24 home loss to Oakland. The OVER has now hit in five of the Colts’ past six games.

In Patrick Mahomes’ first full season, the Chiefs were 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS when home favorites of 10 or more points last season, with two UNDERs hitting.  K.C. was 1-2 ATS in 2018 overall when favored by 10 or more. The Colts are 1-21 SU in their last 22 games when road dogs of 10 or more points and 2-9 SU in their last 11 games at night.

Indianapolis News & Notes

Yes, the Colts were without star receiver T.Y. Hilton due to a quad injury, Devin Funchess is on IR with a broken collarbone, defensive superstar Darius Leonard missed the game with a concussion and Indy lost running back Marlon Mack during the game to an ankle injury. However, Indianapolis allowed a Raiders offense that had just two scoring drives over its last 18 possessions to hang 21 of their 31 points in the first half. In other words, Frank Reich’s squad came out flat and laid one big egg at home.

Derek Carr is a quarterback you can rattle in the pocket, but the Colts pass rush only hit him twice last Sunday. This allowed the Raiders offense to find a groove where they controlled the clock via a run game that averaged 5.9 yards per carry and dominated time of possession 34-26.

Also, a quick glance at the final Colts box score won’t do any good as most of their offensive stats were compiled during garbage time as they tried to eke out a win.

The biggest betting storyline heading into Kansas City is who is healthy, active and ready to compete because if Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have Hilton or Mack, and Leonard remains in the concussion protocol, there’s little chance the Colts can hang around on the road. Mack accounts for 64 percent of Indy’s rush production, while – despite missing the last game – Hilton still accounts for 21 percent of the Colts’ receiving yards. If Mack can bounce back, he faces a Chiefs rush defense that allows nearly 150 rush yards per game.

The Colts’ 25.5 points allowed per game through the first month ranks in the bottom 10 of the league and tied with the Raiders.

Kansas City News & Notes

Patrick Mahomes had tossed at least two touchdown passes in 14 consecutive games and was the first quarterback with at least 350 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in three straight games. His final line from Detroit:

24-42 | 315 Pass Yards | 0 TD | 0 INT | 54 Rush Yards (career high)

You think coach Reich is watching this film to figure out how the Lions secondary was able to cheat back to slow the Chiefs’ high-powered pass offense? This league is all about adjustments and with Reich being a former quarterback, this week’s film study will be as important as ever.

Aside from a controversial fumble, scoop and score for six, the Lions really let the Chiefs off easy considering Kansas City lost three fumbles last Sunday. Andy Reid’s defense has now allowed 26 or more points in three of the first four games and the 6.3 yards allowed per play ranks 29th out of 32 teams. If the Colts get Hilton and Mack back in time for this matchup, you’d have to imagine they could hang within 10, right? Heck, the Jaguars scored 26 on this defense.

On the injury front, defensive end Alex Okafor left the Lions game with a hip injury and is questionable along with running back Damien Williams, who continues to work back from a knee injury.

Betting Pick: LEAN UNDER

I’m leaning UNDER 57 but believe it would be unwise to place a bet on this matchup without knowing the status of Hilton and Mack. 

For more on the pick, hit me up on Twitter @FreelanceFowler