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Injury Values To The Spread For NFL Week 3

Last week I looked at three injury situations in the NFL that truly matter to the spread. I cautioned you that Kansas City's and Oakland's O-line injuries were something to consider and both teams lost and failed to cover. 

Let's look ahead to Week 3 at a handful of injuries that might impact your bets. (Also, ICYMI — my piece on the NFL Injuries That Really Matter is a must-read.) 

Cleveland Browns offensive line injuries and QB Josh McCown 

Oddsmaker's value: 3 points 
My value: 6 points 

Cleveland starting center Cameron Erving likely won't play, which leaves the Browns with a completely shuffled O-line that's short on reserves. When you throw in the fact rookie Cody Kessler will make his first NFL start in place of the two injured guys ahead of him, this isn't good for the Browns. The market corrected this one and bumped Miami from -7.5 to -10. I am concerned about a road-weary Dolphins team here, though. Otherwise I would have given these injuries even more value.

Indianapolis Colts offensive line injuries 

Oddsmaker's value: 0 points 
My value: 2 points

Starting center Ryan Kelly missed practice this week with some kind of shoulder injury and starting tackle Denzelle Good didn't participate on Thursday either. My best guess is that Kelly will play and Good won't. Those are significant because the O-line is more vital than ever to the Colts, who have a banged-up defense that's slow healing and quickly stinking it up. I would have opened the Colts as a 1-point fave here and am a little surprised they are laying three — but the Chargers have some injuries issues on offense.  

Oakland Raiders offensive line injuries 

Oddsmaker’s value: 2 points 
My value: 2 points 

Recreational bettors still aren’t taking these Raiders offensive line injuries seriously and the public money is jumping on them to beat the Titans this week. Sharp money, on the other hand, is pouring in on the Titans and the line has moved from a pick to Tennessee -1.5.  Starting center Rodney Hudson and starting guard Gabe Jackson are getting healthier and I would guess they’ll start. But Oakland still has three tackles who had to sit out or were limited in practice this week. The O-line is the strength of this Raiders team with a defense that's struggling, so these are important injuries to watch. 

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