If not for Nick Foles’ last-minute heroics, Deshaun Watson would have engineered one of 2018’s best comebacks. Trailing 29-16 in the fourth quarter, the Texans scored two touchdowns in the final five minutes to take a 30-29 lead before Philadelphia’s Jake Elliott kicked the game-winner as time expired. The 32-30 loss dropped the Texans to 10-5 straight up and 6-7-2 against the spread.
If Cody Kessler was promoted because Blake Bortles was a sub-optimal quarterback, what does it mean when Kessler is benched in favor of Bortles in a meaningless Week 16 game at Miami? Jacksonville’s 17-7 road win over the Dolphins confirms the playoff team of a year ago remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The Jaguars are 5-10 straight up and 5-8-2 against the spread this season.
Houston opened as a 10-point home favorite, but that spread was trimmed to -7. Jacksonville’s moneyline is +300 and the point total is 40.5. The Texans (+3.5) won and covered 20-7 at Jacksonville back in late October.
- The Texans are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.
- The Texans are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home after consecutive road games.
- The Jaguars are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games vs their division on the road.
WHAT WE LEARNED WEEK 16, THIS SEASON AND MATCHUPS TO CONSIDER
Jaguars – Before he was removed from the game, Cody Kessler led just his second touchdown drive in 32 possessions as the Jaguars quarterback. Bortles has to start this week, right?
Top-five draft pick Leonard Fournette has averaged 41.6 rush yards per game over the past three weeks running behind a line that has placed four of its five starters on injured reserve. The Texans defense averages nearly three sacks per game. It could get ugly in the Jacksonville backfield. Viewer discretion is advised.
This will be the first time this season that the Jaguars are road dogs of seven or more points. They are 6-3-1 ATS under those conditions over their past 10 and 6-1 ATS over their past seven.
Texans – Houston definitely missed Lamar Miller’s services in Week 16. Alfred Blue and D’Onta Foreman combined for 13 yards on 11 carries. Miller is dealing with an ankle injury sustained two weeks ago at New York, but coach Bill O’Brien says he’s trending toward returning against the Jaguars. In the season’s first meeting, Miller rushed 22 times for 100 yards with a touchdown. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 145 rush yards per game over its past three.
Watson has been completing well above 70 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns, no interceptions and three rushing touchdowns over his past five games. The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69 percent of their passes over the past three weeks, which is the NFL’s sixth-highest rate.
The Texans secondary has allowed a league-high 358.7 pass yards per game. If Kessler and/or Bortles have any chance of hanging with Houston, it’ll be via the air.
This will be the third time this season that the Texans are a home favorite of seven or more points. They’re 1-1 ATS in 2018, but 3-7 ATS over their past 10 under those conditions.
HOUSTON, TEXAS FORECAST
Inside the dome.
Jacksonville’s Josh Lambo missed his second consecutive game due to a groin injury. Kai Forbath was 1-for-2 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points. Houston kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn missed an extra point against the Eagles, which was the difference between a Texans ATS cover and PUSH. He’s 35-for-40 on field goals and 37 of 39 on extra points.
MY LEAN
The Jaguars are 2-27 in their last 29 games on the road vs teams with winning records. Think about that for a second. While we don’t know if Bortles or Kessler will make the Week 17 start, we do know the Houston pass rush is going to harass Jacksonville’s injury-plagued offensive line. With the AFC South title on the line, J.J. Watt and company are going to make life very uncomfortable for whoever is taking the snaps.
I’m leaning the Texans to cover and the OVER.
