The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a crushing collapse that pushed their playoff prospects into dire straits. They will try to regroup and end their six-game losing streak as 3-point road favorites against the Buffalo Bills, who exit their bye week coming off a blowout divisional win. With both teams struggling on offense, the total was set at 37.5 points.
- The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups between these teams.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills’ last eight games (avg. combined score: 35.88).
- Jacksonville is 1-3 SU in its last four games at Buffalo.
WHY I’M BETTING ON THE UNDER 37.5 THIS SUNDAY
I’ll be honest: 38 points is not a very high total to eclipse. But when you have the ninth-lowest scoring defense (Jacksonville), along with a solid Buffalo unit, and both teams are in the bottom four in offensive scoring, it suddenly becomes a much larger task.
Jacksonville has lost six straight games, with the last three coming by a combined 13 points. Its biggest issue has been an inability to string together a cohesive offensive effort. After four straight contests with less than 100 rushing yards, the Jaguars erupted for 179 rushing yards last week … only to see Blake Bortles pass for a whopping 104 yards on the day. Until they can threaten a defense both on the ground and through the air, they are going to continue to struggle.
That works well for Buffalo, a team that also struggles to score … except when facing the New York Jets. After putting up historically bad offensive statistics through nine games, the Bills, behind journeyman Matt Barkley making his first start in years, humiliated New York 41-10 in Week 10. For comparison, Buffalo had 46 points in its previous six games combined. The outburst wasn’t enough to get the Bills out of the scoring basement, as they still sit dead last in the NFL with 13.7 points per game.
The teams combine to average 31.3 points per game on the year, and despite Buffalo’s recent outburst, we will not see a repeat on Sunday. While Jacksonville is the favorite, it’s hard to believe in betting on a 3-7 road team, with Bortles at quarterback, as a favorite. It’s also difficult to bet on the Bills at any time, so I’m going to play it safe and go with conventional math:
Bad offenses + good defenses = UNDER.
WELCOME BACK LEONARD
Jacksonville star running back Leonard Fournette played in back-to-back games for the first time this season, and the Jaguars certainly didn’t hold back his usage.
After 24 carries for just 53 yards in Week 10, Fournette was given 28 carries, tying a career-high, for 95 yards last week against Pittsburgh. Fournette set the tone on a day when Jacksonville rumbled for 179 yards, and it’s good to see him healthy and receiving a full workload.
While Jacksonville wasn’t able to close out a victory in Week 11, falling to Pittsburgh in a furious fourth-quarter rally, if the Jaguars want to improve their record at all down the stretch, Fournette will be key as the team cannot rely on Bortles. The signal-caller’s completion rate is just 56 percent in the fourth quarter this season (compared to above 62 percent in the first three periods), where he also has just one touchdown, three interceptions and a 66.8 passer rating.
BILLS BOOSTED BY ALLEN
The Buffalo offense might get a small boost when starting quarterback Josh Allen returns following a four-game absence due to an elbow injury.
The rookie first-round pick, who was hurt during a Week 6 loss, has a 2-3 record, throwing for 832 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions, while adding 155 rushing yards and three scores on the ground.
While Matt Barkley did an admiral job in Week 10, Allen’s arm strength and athleticism opens up so much more for the Buffalo offense than what Barkley, or Nathan Peterman and Derek Anderson (who both also started during Allen’s absence), can offer.
With Allen back in the lineup, expect Buffalo to be a little bit more aggressive on offense, giving the game just a slightly better chance of not being a 9-6 snoozefest.
