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Can Patriots Continue Epic Run at the Betting Window vs Jaguars?

The New England Patriots are a ridiculous 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games, making them the only team in the last six seasons to cover the spread 10 times in an 11-game span. They’re back in a familiar spot, hosting an AFC championship game, but they’ll square off with an unlikely opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who’ll be looking to pull off a second straight upset on the road.

Shark Bites
  • Tom Brady at home this season: 21 TDs and two INTs.
  • The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference championships games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last seven conference championship games.

While no one will debate which team has the better offense, a case can definitely be made for either side on defense. The Jags are recognized for having one of the league’s top defenses, but that claim is a little misleading, especially when you look at their numbers on the road. Over their last four road games, they’ve allowed an average of 32 points per game. The Patriots defense, meanwhile, has rebounded in a big way after a pathetic start to the season, allowing just 14 points per game over their last 13 games, and 12.16 points per game during their six-game home winning streak.

Speaking of that six-game home winning streak, they’ve absolutely been laying the smack down on visitors, as they’ve won the six games by an average of 17.3 points, with five of the six wins coming by double digits. New England also has a nice playoff home winning streak going, where they’ve won seven straight (6-1 ATS) by an average of 18.3 points.

Yes, this data clearly points toward a big New England win, but the playoffs have been extremely volatile so far. Not only are underdogs 7-1 ATS so far, they’ve also won four games outright. This would rank as one of the bigger upsets of the last decade in the playoffs, but as recently as three years ago, we saw the Colts upset the Broncos as a +9.5-point underdog.

The total for the game is in the 46.5-point range and the OVER has been the bet to make in Patriots home games, as it’s hit in six of nine games at Gillette Stadium. The Jaguars have been on a decent stretch of OVERs as well, going above the mark in four of their last six games and in three of their last four on the road.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Those siding with the visitors in this matchup saw the Jacksonville Jaguars listed as 9.5-point underdogs at shops such as Bovada. Meanwhile, the OVER/UNDER line for the betting matchup was at 46 over at 5Dimes.

OddsShark NFL prediction models pointed to a 30-16 result in favor of the Patriots on Sunday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Betting fans of the New England Patriots have seen them go 14-3 and 12-5 ATS so far this season, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are at 12-6 and 10-8 ATS. In OVER/UNDER totals betting, the Jaguars are 9-9, while the Patriots are 8-9. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Jacksonville injuries news.

It's a betting matchup between the No. 1-rated Patriots and the No. 5-ranked Jaguars, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 29 PPG, against a Jaguars defense that ranks No. 3 this week at 17.39 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 279.65 yards per game, more than the Jaguars secondary allows through the air, 184.06 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Jaguars own the league's No. 12-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 111.44 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 8 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Leonard Fournette sliced and diced the Pittsburgh defense for 3 touchdowns as the Jaguars won their last game, handling the Steelers 45-42 at Heinz Field.

In their last game, the Patriots got 3 passing scores out of Tom Brady en route to a 35-14 win over the Titans on Saturday at Gillette Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • Jacksonville is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
  • Jacksonville is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
  • Jacksonville is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
  • New England is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
  • New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 13 games
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home