Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs (14-3 SU, 7-10 ATS) are listed as the biggest favorites for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark, opening as 8.5-point home chalk vs the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8, 9-9) for Saturday’s AFC matchup.

The AFC West champion Chiefs are coming off a bye as the top-seeded team in the conference while the fourth-seeded Jaguars put together the third-largest comeback in postseason history last Saturday, rallying back from a 27-0 deficit for a 31-30 win over the Los Angeles Chargers as 2-point home underdogs.

Latest Betting Notes: Jaguars

Jacksonville remains one of the hottest teams in the league after winning its sixth straight game against Los Angeles last week, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence improving to 37-0 in games he has played on a Saturday dating back to high school.

The top overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft will get another opportunity to stay perfect on Saturdays here, although his first career road playoff start will likely be much more difficult than his first one at home.

Lawrence completed 29 of 40 passes for 259 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 27-17 loss at Kansas City back in Week 10 with Jacksonville closing as a 9.5-point road underdog. However, the Jaguars were 3-7 then and have won seven of eight games since while covering the spread in six of them.

Latest Betting Notes: Chiefs

Kansas City is riding a five-game winning streak, with the team’s lone loss in its last 11 taking place on the road against Cincinnati in Week 13. The Chiefs narrowly dropped that one 27-24, as overwhelming MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes fell to 0-3 in his career vs Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

They jumped out to a 20-0 lead against the Jaguars in the first meeting before giving up a touchdown right before halftime and were in control for most of the game with the spread never really threatened until the end. Kansas City has covered just two of its last six, with three of the wins during the streak decided by six points or less. The Chiefs have scored 24 points or more in nine straight.

The Keys to Victory: Jaguars

Jacksonville never gave up last week, scoring a touchdown right before halftime on a pass from Lawrence to tight end Evan Engram with 24 seconds remaining. The Jaguars did almost the exact same thing against the Chiefs but could not find the same magic away from home in the earlier meeting, but they should be flying high with confidence off that playoff win.

Doug Pederson is a tremendous head coach who knows what it takes to win in the postseason, and he has worked very closely with Kansas City’s Andy Reid both as a player and coach with the Philadelphia Eagles. Pederson probably knows his mentor better than anyone else in the league, and that is definitely worth considering here.

The Keys to Victory: Chiefs

Reid is widely known as the master of the bye week, leading his teams to a remarkable 21-3 SU mark in 24 regular-season games under that scenario. Kansas City is also 5-0 off a bye with Mahomes, who has never lost in the divisional round of the playoffs either. Those numbers are hard to fade, especially given the way Mahomes and the offense have played down the stretch.

But the defense of the Chiefs might be the biggest key in helping cover the big spread in this spot. Lawrence threw four picks in the first half last week and was somehow able to overcome that with four touchdown passes. If he plays like that on the road, the home team will lay the hammer down and make him pay for those mistakes.