Ho-Ho-Horrific: Anemic Jaguars Face Dolphins in Miami

The “Miami Miracle” was a short-lived celebration after the Dolphins defense allowed 30-plus points for the sixth time this season in a 41-17 loss at Minnesota. Ryan Tannehill completed just 11 of 24 passes for 108 yards as Miami fell to 7-7 overall and 8-6 against the spread this season. The Dolphins’ failure to cover the +7.5 was just their second failed ATS win over the past six games with back-to-back OVERS hitting.

Jacksonville allowed a quarterback making his first start in seven years to pick up his first career win on their home field. Although the Jaguars rushed 26 times for 172 yards as a team, Cody Kessler’s two turnovers and 9-of-17 passing for 57 yards led to just one red-zone trip in an embarrassing 16-13 loss to Josh Johnson’s Redskins. The Jaguars are now 4-10 overall and 4-8-2 against the spread this season. They are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Dolphins opened as 3.5-point home favorites, but that has grown to Miami -5. Jacksonville’s moneyline opened at +217 with a must-see-TV Sportsbook point total of 39.5 that has ticked up to 40. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS at home this season and 13-4-3 at home in the past 20 games.

Jaguars vs Dolphins Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 15

Jaguars – Contrary to what Hue Jackson believed when he drafted him in Cleveland a few years ago, perhaps Cody Kessler isn’t a franchise’s answer at quarterback. The AP reported that since taking over for Blake Bortles, Kessler has engineered one touchdown drive in 31 possessions.

Leo Fournette carried the ball one time in the second half as head coach Doug Marrone admitted he wanted to see undrafted free agent David Williams get some work in the second half of a close game. Remember this when you consider placing any faith in the Jaguars the next two weeks.

The Jaguars and Redskins managed to hit the UNDER on a 36.5-point total.

Dolphins – Frank Gore left the game against the Vikings with a foot/ankle injury. X-rays reportedly came back negative, but he was seen in a walking boot later. ESPN reported Monday that he is not expected to play again this season. With Kenyan Drake playing through a shoulder injury, he only carried the ball one time against Minnesota, which allowed rookie Kalen Ballage to take over the lead back role. Aside from a 75-yard touchdown run to start the second half, he was quiet for most of the afternoon. Ballage does have a great matchup this week as the Jaguars have allowed 138 rush yards per game the past three weeks.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS:  JOKESONVILLE’S OFFENSE

Kessler passed for less than 60 yards, but 172 rush yards against Washington is commendable. Yet, somehow Jacksonville managed to buck a historic ATS trend. Over the last three seasons, teams that rush for 172 or more yards in a game are 184-46-1 straight up and 173-48-10 against the spread. The Jaguars managed to lose SU and ATS.

MIAMI, FLORIDA FORECAST

Mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 70s, 64 percent humidity and 10 percent chance of rain. Winds shouldn’t impact the game.

Jaguars kicker Josh Lambo was inactive against the Redskins due to a groin injury. His backup, Kai Forbath, was 2-for-2 on field goals and 1-for-1 on extra points. If Lambo returns against the Dolphins, he’s 19 of 21 on field goals and 19 of 20 on extra points, assuming the Jaguars find the end zone. Miami’s Jason Sanders connected on a lone field goal and two extra points in the Dolphins’ loss to the Vikings. He’s now 17 of 18 on field-goal attempts and 32-for-33 on extra-point tries.

MY LEAN

I wrote this note to myself Sunday night: “get Miami’s early -3.5 line” and as it should turn out, the spread jumped to Dolphins -5 by Monday morning. Even with Gore doubtful, I still like Miami in this spot assuming Kessler makes another start. The Dolphins are just a different team at home and one that can cover against a team ready to fire its head coach.

I lean Dolphins -5 and UNDER with what is expected to be a rush-centric – aka running clock – affair.