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Week 17 historically profitable for Denver Broncos

The Patrick Mahomes II story will begin at Mile High Stadium when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos in Week 17. The matchup has no playoff implications for either team but that doesn’t mean bettors won’t be interested to see how the rookie fares at staring down the Broncos’ fourth-ranked pass defense. Denver opened as a 3.5-point favorite vs an expected second-string Chiefs squad.

  • The visiting team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs’ last seven games.
  • The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs AFC West teams.

For Denver, this is a chance to close out the season on a high note after falling dramatically short of playoff expectations. The Broncos’ everlasting search for a quarterback was on full display this season with stints by Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and this week’s starter, Paxton Lynch. The second-year signal-caller was underwhelming in his only start this season (9-for-14 completions and 41 yards passing) and lasted three quarters vs the Raiders in Week 12 before exiting with an ankle injury. If Lynch can’t excel against the Chiefs’ backups, then this may be the time for him to consider a new line of employment. But for now, bettors will be banking on him for a payday and to continue the trend of the Broncos ending their season with a victory as Denver is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games in Week 17.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have just made the playoffs for the third straight year and although they may have their B squad out there, K.C. should still have a decent shot to escape with a victory. Their recent history vs the Broncos suggests that even their backups won’t be pushovers. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU in their last four games against Denver and Kansas City looks to have regained its scoring touch, notching 85 points in the last three games. And Mahomes II could surprise the Denver secondary with the lack of game tape available on the rookie to scout him.

The total opened at 38 and the OVER could be a decent way to get a checkmark in your bank account. The OVER has hit in the last three games in this matchup and with most of the Chiefs’ starters expected to sit out, it should open things up for Paxton Lynch to spread his wings and fire the pigskin vs a Chiefs secondary that was already ranked 27th in passing yards allowed.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

On the opening betting line for this matchup, the Denver Broncos sat as 2.5-point favorites at shops such as BetOnline. The total has been pegged by the oddsmakers at GTbets.eu at 41.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas picked a 22-19 win for the Broncos. Injuries during the week may cause the formula to be re-run, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Denver Broncos sit at 5-10 (4-10-1 ATS) on the season; in comparison, the Kansas City Chiefs are currently 9-6 (9-6 ATS). Looking to bet on the totals? Denver is 7-7-1 OU, and Kansas City is 7-8 OU. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Denver vs Kansas City injuries news.

The game pits the Broncos, currently No. 26 in our OddsShark NFL Power Rankings, against the Chiefs, who rate No. 12 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Denver's No. 26-ranked offense, averaging 17.67 PPG, against a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 14 this week at 21 PPG. The Broncos aerial game is averaging 207 yards per game, less than the Chiefs secondary allows through the air, 248.4 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Chiefs own the league's No. 22-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 122.86 yards per game when on the road. Denver, on the other hand, rates No. 17 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Alex Smith led the way last time out for the Chiefs, connecting for 304 passing yards and a 29-13 victory over the Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium.

In their last game, the Broncos were Week 16 losers coming out on the wrong end of a 27-11 score against Washington.

Betting Trends
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
  • Kansas City is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
  • Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Kansas City is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
  • Denver is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
  • Denver is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
  • Denver is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home